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Global Vegoils Analysis – 16 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


华盛顿5月15日消息,美国农业部发布的大豆作物播种进展报告显示,当前美国18个大豆主产州的大豆播种进度达到35%,高于去年同期的29%,也高于5年同期平均进度的26%。 昨日周二晚间,美豆油7月合约期价在40天均线位置受阻,终盘以小阴K线下跌收盘。 今天周三亚洲电子早盘,期价又继续阴K线十字星表现,这给内盘油脂商品带来心理上压力—–密切关注美豆油反弹上行是否结束? 今日晚间美豆油的表现成为关键。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 今天内盘豆油1809合约期价下挫幅度较大,盘面率先出现反弹终结信号。 内盘棕榈油期价也在60天均线处受到压力(空头在60天线处阻击 多头减仓),内盘油脂今天的中阴K线下跌表现,给反弹上行盘面带来一定的阴影。


小结: 全球油脂商品经过前期一段时间的短线反弹上行后,随着期价不断走高,期价反弹过程中开始受到一定阻力——特别是内盘马盘棕榈油品种,当期价反弹到日K线图表空头排列的最上方一根60天均线位置后,空头主力势必将出面进行阻挠, 这种情怀我们已经在预料之中,后市关注多头主力的信心与上破动能是否得以发挥。 具体操作上:内盘油脂出现一定程度下跌,盘面出现疲软。 马盘棕榈油多头抵抗能还比较强烈,在关键技术位多空主力拼死博弈时刻——我们散户朋友也要保持谨慎心态,在这地方后市短线走势有两种可能,1. 期价继续上行,拉动下方短期均线金叉上穿60天均线,反弹得以延续(大的趋势线反转行情开始)。2. 期价60天均线处受阻下跌,前期短暂反弹结束(前期中长线角度的下探延续)。 当前时刻来说,我们尚不能完全确定市场要选择哪种方式演绎, 这需要今日晚间美盘豆油的具体方向性指引。 建议部分敏感型交易者多单继续减仓只保留少量多单,心理忍耐力较强的交易者多单暂时谨慎持有,待明天局势明朗后,再决定是否平多翻空操作—— 简单一句话就是,多头胜则多单继续持有 空头胜则反手。

• Global edible oil soared, notably China and Malaysia palm oil.
• China and Malaysia palm oil broke 60 days moving average, expect resistance will occur.

• Conservative traders may close certain positions.
• Aggressive traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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