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Global Vegoils Analysis – 18 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.01.2018周四欧盟议会支持生物燃油中逐步减少棕榈油参混比

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日周三晚间期价又中阴下跌——当前期价已经下破12月22日—28日的前低32.50—32.70一线,美豆油连续2根阴K线下跌走势,令全球油脂类商品疲弱态势更加明显清晰起来,对美豆油我们保持短线下挫整理观点(美豆保持反弹上行观点)。 美豆油3月合约也存在一个技术“瑕疵”,相信大部分分析师还未察觉,这存在个“底背离”现象,关于这一技术信号,有待我们继续盘中观察(到更明确时候我们再写出来)。但我个人内心已经保持警惕了。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今日周四盘面期价低开高走小阳K线表现,内盘油脂抵抗性下挫整理,期价下挫幅度较小—-特别是豆油1805合约,隐隐中下方有只无形的手在拖着期价,我们暂且以谨慎的短空下挫观点对待。

受欧洲议会投票事件担忧情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日周三盘中期价低开低走盘中下跌,我们紧急建议反手空单追进操作,并且日内平仓。今天周四盘面期价低开高走表现,利空的恐慌情绪过后,盘中正逐步消化吸收不利因素对盘面的影响,马来西亚方面当前利空因素较多(期价下挫幅度较大),我们继续以短暂的下挫整理观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油昨日试探前低的支撑效力,短线盘面大有下破之感。欧盟议会昨日雪上加霜—–投票支持减少棕榈油进口,这对马来西亚印度尼西亚棕榈油的出口带来利空因素,造成马盘棕榈油期价下挫幅度扩大。内盘油脂抵抗中下挫整理,期价下挫幅度较小(存在多头护盘 春节前存在一个油脂商品节日备货高峰期),全球油脂类商品短线下挫走势逐步明朗—-但内盘马盘期价并未触及到12月22日的前低,我们对美豆油保持谨慎的下挫观点对待,继续关注美豆油在前低技术位置的走势表现。操作上:内盘马盘前期低点位置多单继续少量持有,不触及该位置暂不平单,昨日日内反手追空操作平仓之后,今日不建议继续追空,暂且场外观望。密切关注美盘豆油到底在前低位置如何表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil begins to show downward momentum.
• No thanks to a vote in the European parliament to limit the imports of palm oil, bearish sentiment exascerbated the fall of Malaysia palm oil.
• China edible oils track the fall, albeit a smaller scale.
• With China and Malaysia edible oils still away for the low registered on December 22, we hold a bearish outlook on US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions on China and Malaysia edible oils but with small exposure, as long as the low has not been breached.
• Traders who played the short trade yesterday may stay on the sidelines today.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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