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Global Vegoils Analysis – 18 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.18日周一中美贸易战升级CBOT大豆豆油暴跌

出尔反尔,言行不一,翻脸比翻书还快,这届美国总统特朗普的嘴脸惊爆全球经济人士眼球(通常意义上讲,全球200多个国家的任何元首 总统 总理作为国家第一领导人 均是重守信誉 言行一致 唯独一个特朗普老头偏偏反其道行之 以国家信誉的丧失来搏一点点眼前的商业利益 玩任性?)。。。据华盛顿最新消息:上周五晚间美国总统召集顾问团队,再度提起对中国500亿美元商品征收25%,旨在抑制打压中国高科技行业,缩减中美贸易逆差,维护全球第一大国地位(干老二)——–此前的中美三轮贸易团谈判成果终于毁于一旦。。。。中国方面则继续保持强硬态度反击(中国人硬骨头 吃软不吃硬),在第一时间对美国 汽车 农产品 水产品同样发起500亿美元商品征收25%的进口关税———–其中重点就包括大豆(美国每年60%的大豆要出口到中国),美国豆农再度恐慌的从床上蹦起来(美豆农最受伤), CBOT美盘大豆上周五晚间长阴K线暴跌(跌幅2.2%左右),期价创2017年8月以来新低。 美盘豆油12月合约(7月合约临近交割月12月扛起主力大旗),也因美大豆出口形势不利情绪影响出现大跌(跌幅2.26%),期价创2016年8月以来的新低, 美盘油脂商品陷入一片慌乱情绪当中(看我们散户能否在恐慌情绪下找到商机)。

今天6月18日周一,是中国传统节日“端午节”,内盘金融市场(股票 期货)全部因假期停盘。。。内盘油脂商品如何表现,要等到明天周二才明朗。。。。单从内盘来说, 中国对美国大豆进口提高25%的关税,将会从一定程度上减少从美国进口大豆(转为巴西 阿根廷),并且中国的进口成本肯定会增加,做为全球第一大豆进口国,在刚性需求下(民众硬性消费就在那摆着 等油下锅炒菜 国内生产不足 你不得不买),。。。。国内进口成本增加,均会摊到每位中国公民身上, 我们看明天内盘油脂市场会如何表现吧。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月(或9月),受美盘豆油暴跌影响 ,今天周一早盘期价低开低走,上周四的中阳上涨成果被“抹杀”(6.15日上周五停盘), 在缺少中国大连交易所交易影响下,今天马盘棕榈油上午盘面成交清淡,期价暂时在2310一线徘徊,等待明天中国市场如何表现。

小结:美盘农产品市场再度受中美贸易摩擦利空情绪波及——-美大豆 美豆油上周五双双暴跌,美盘油脂短线角度的急挫走势达到极点区域,密切关注美盘短线急跌超卖之后的后续市场表现。 大陆内盘油脂商品今天停盘未交易,明天开盘之后市场如何演绎——是追随美盘走低?还是进口成本增加而走高? 这需要我们明天密切关注。 操作上:上周前几日低位埋伏的多单继续谨慎持有,关注内盘多空主力的明日表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean and soybean oil slipped, affected by trade war between US and China.
• Awaiting after-market’s performance when it displayed “oversold”.

[ACTION]
• Traders are recommended to hold current positions.
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This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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