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Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油7月合约,短线走势继续不温不火的“温水煮青蛙”模式,短线走势没一点新鲜感—–多年以来,美豆油走势都是方向感明确,波段性上涨下跌轮廓清晰,从来没有像现在这样“模糊”, 最近一段时间简直令人失望透顶—–你若要下,就痛快的下,可它又下不动,下方一只无形的手在撑着,要么就上, 可上面也有一只无形的手在压着。。。美豆油就这样虫子般“蛰伏”,分析难度加大。无论它怎么用时间换取空间——我继续以下挫超跌之后的技术酝酿反弹观点对待(美豆油中短线技术存在超跌反弹要求)。

大陆内盘期货市场,今天周四盘面各类大宗商品人气高涨——从贵金属 黄金白银 到有色金属 铜锌 黑色金属螺纹钢 铁矿石 甚至化工类橡胶 PTA等等品种,期价均是红盘阳K线上涨,盘中做多人气凝聚。。。对油脂类农产品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约来说,今天周四期价小幅上涨,盘中涨幅不大,仍需短线做多氛围渲染,我们耐心短多反弹观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,本周二期价中阳K线探底上涨表现,昨日周三又继续小阳K线,今天周四早盘期价高开低走的小阴K线走势,期价已经脱离3月12日2352令吉特的前低位置, 当前来到2400整数关一线运行, 虽然涨幅不大,但我们短线超卖之后的触底反弹观点不变。

小结: 内盘 马盘油脂商品期价小幅走高,反弹雏形逐步出现痕迹,美盘豆油仍蛰伏不动,继续等待美盘豆油的“短线呼应指引”。 操作上:稳健型交易者场外观望, 不见美盘出现新动静不操作。 前期未逢高平仓干净的多单,特别是5月合约的部分多单,继续把握逢高减仓的心理准备,后市期价我们继续看高一线。

• US soybean oil market remain volatile.
• Malaysia and China edible oils rose, showing sign of rebound.

• Conservative traders may hold their current positions.
• Traders who are still holding May contract may prepare to close positions when necessary.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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