Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.01.2018周五全球油脂类商品需求疲软期货市场期价短线下挫走势延续中

美黄豆连短线期价震荡上扬,美盘豆油3月合约期价下破前低之后,惯性加速状态更加明显,二者一上一下的“分道扬镳”走势令当前美盘油脂商品出现怪异走势(永远记住2017年与2018年这个交汇时刻的走势已经误导了我们2次了)。单从美盘豆油3月来说—–当前期价下破前低后,而多项技术指标却拒绝走低,我们昨天提到的三个字“底背离”迹象出现苗头(通常意义上讲,底背离走势往往是酝酿更大级别的波段行情前兆),不排除此波下挫之后,期价存在猛烈反弹走势的可能(当然此话目前来说还为时过早)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,期价保持追随性下挫走势,当前内盘基本面情况远没有美盘马盘基本面那么糟糕,但由于美盘马盘断崖式下跌,内盘油脂也只好抵抗性下挫,并且棕榈油下挫幅度大于豆油,全球目光均聚焦到中国消费大国——中国春节假期节日效应的刚性需求何时能在市场体现,从而拉动消费层面的关注度,提振全球油脂商品信息。内盘油脂商品确实处于一个尴尬境界。据国家统计总局昨日1月18日公布的2017年度国内生产总值(GDP)数字怒破80万亿达到82万亿,全年增速达到6.9%个百分点,整体形势好于预期,保持在中高速增长,该成绩单较为亮眼 全球瞩目。

马来西亚方面的基本面情况越来越清晰——2017年12月底的棕榈油库存为273.2万吨,该数字是18年以来所有年底库存最高的数字,而马币令吉特的走强,也是18个月来汇率最高的时候(这对海外买家购买马来西亚棕榈油,价格上就显得更加昂贵),马政府此前曾出台为期3个月的棕榈油出口关税减免,但这一短暂利好消息在如此多的利空消息面前就显得微不足道了,与此同时,欧盟方面又支撑 减少棕榈油进口,一系列的落井下石基本面是当前马盘棕榈油期价下挫走软的主要原因。马盘棕榈油基准3月,最近几日期价“直线断崖式下坠”,期价下挫幅度加大,空头主力毫无忌惮的刻意打压,今天的跳空低开已经令期价临近前低位置——也就是我们前期低位拐点多单持仓的“底线红线”位置—–几天前我们曾提到一句话 “低位多单减仓到无论市场如何变化而不 心惊地步,就是合理的个人持仓数量”,真是担心什么就发生什么,这期价真的触及我们心中的红线位置了,再平稳的心态也难免出现内心些许波澜。

小结:美国马来西亚当前疲软的基本面出口数据,令油脂类商品短线走势出现波段性下挫走势,美盘豆油期价率先提前下破前低,马盘内盘油脂商品正在逐步靠近前低,这种局面虽然我们此前已经有所防备,但内心深处还是让散户朋友“不寒而栗”。其实我个人更关心的问题是—-美豆油下破前低之后,市场会如何演绎?下挫多深才出现支撑位?底背离走势又允许它能下探多深?下探结束后未来行情该如何发展?确实是令人头疼的问题——不过我个人潜意识里还是不认为下破之后会继续下探很多,一直有种“强弩之末”的感觉。还是先关注短线操作吧。具体操作上:内盘马盘前期低位剩余的少量多单暂时持有,内盘马盘不破前低多单不止损,下破之后我们再技术性平多翻空。

[SUMMARY]
• Bearish fundamental data is driving US and Malaysia edible oils lower.
• US soybean oil has touched its previous low, while China and Malaysia edible oils are approaching theirs.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions on China and Malaysia edible oils.
• Should China and Malaysia fall past their previous lows, we consider going short.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock