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Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


从本周一(7月16日)开始,美盘黄豆连期价翻红上涨,截止今天周四上午亚洲电子盘已经是“四连阳”,期价从830一线上涨到860一线,从理论成本上来说,美豆830美分已经击穿了美国大豆的种植成本区域,因此下方的下跌空间受到限制,这也是我们不再盲目看空很深的主要原因。 美豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间出现了久违的阳K线,短线也出现了右侧止跌横盘迹象,我们对美盘油脂继续保持低位的酝酿反弹观点不变,继续关注后市短线的上涨幅度与力度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,本周以来,期价出现小幅走高欲望,虽然目前涨幅不大,但盘中空头逢低减仓动作明显,因此本周初我们就建议早空头主力一步,先把空单平仓了结——继续关注内盘油脂在前低(6月19–20日)的技术支撑力度,同时关注“W型”双底是否演绎成功,内盘油脂单向多单暂时谨慎持有。


小结:美豆当前生长优良率在70%左右,开花率在65%,结荚率在26%左右——美大豆各项生长数据明显高于往年同期水平,对今年天气炒作丰产的担忧情绪也是近期美大豆期价下跌的另一个原因(除了 中美贸易战恐慌情绪外),当美豆下跌到极限区域范围内。不排除出现反身走强的可能,因此上,我们本周初建议反手空单与锁仓空单率先平仓离场,剩余开锁多单与新进低位补仓多单谨慎持有—–这是我们目前最佳的思维操作模式,后市的关注焦点 我们转移到美盘油脂反身走强的力度与幅度大小上来,这对内盘马盘油脂商品会形成间接的提振作用。。。操作上:开锁多单与新进补仓多单继续谨慎持有。

• Better than expected soybean growth rate caused US soybean oil price dropped.

• Trader may close current positions and initiate new positions.
• Focus on possible rebound in US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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