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Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油5月合约,上周五晚间小阳十字星走势,今天亚洲电子早盘又小阴十字星表现, 美盘豆油短线走势仍比较模糊,对内盘 马盘油脂商品的短线指引不够明确。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,最近现货市场价格小幅下滑,期货市场期价呈现“不温不火”的横盘波动,今天周一盘面期价低开高走,盘中短线角度整理徘徊迹象明显,整体期价变动不大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,上周五报告时候(中午时分),还呈现5连阳走势,我们报告才出—–马盘棕榈油5月期价瞬间就出现“冲高回落”现象(下午一开盘 ),随后整个下午期价逐步走软,终盘“乌云盖顶”的阴K线收盘于2428令吉(我们预计的是本周一 早了半天)。今天周一早盘期价平开高走,期价短线调整,围绕在箱体下沿附近。

小结:内盘 马盘油脂商品短线出现小幅整理走势,特别是马盘棕榈油在连续5天反弹上行后,短线分时图上存在“超买”迹象(有一定的获利盘),并且期价也反弹到关键技术位置,这种走势在我们预料之中(支撑阻挡转换的确认)。 只要期价不出现大的下挫,我们短线仍保持短多思维不变。具体操作上:激进型交易者已经逢高减持多单的散户朋友,可于调整到下方次低点时候再多单接回(2450–2460下方X点),未赶住“滚动”操作的稳健型交易者多单可继续持有,暂时忽略短线的期价的波动,后市短线调整过后仍具备短线上行可能。

• China and Malaysia soybean oil went into consolidation phase.
• Malaysia soybean oil showed “overbought” condition.
• Maintain current strategy if the volatility remain low.

• Aggressive traders may initiate new positions when new entry points appear.
• Conservative traders may ignore current market price movement.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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