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Global Vegoils Analysis – 19 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.19日周三美国特朗普昨日宣布对中国2000亿美元商品征收关税

中美贸易战升级——昨日周二,美国总统特朗普宣布,将对来自中国价值2000亿美元的商品征收10%关税,将在下周9月24日开始实施,并在2019年1月1日起上升至25%。 此前,美国政府已经对中国500亿产品征收了关税,这进一步表明中美贸易战正处于逐步升级状态,中方的反制措施也恐要马上公布(估计该针对美国飞机制造业了)。。。。中美剑拔弩张的紧张局势给全球经济带来极大的伤害。 作为贸易战影响最直接的油脂商品来说:美国大豆出口中国大门已经关闭,新一轮征收关税,对美国原本已经很疲软的大豆 豆油造成进一步心理压力。 昨日周二晚间,美黄豆连闻利空消息期价再度阴K线下跌,美盘豆油12月合约期价也追随性继续走软,美盘油脂市场短线角度破位之后的下挫走势延续中, 我们继续关注下方回落空间大小。

中国方面:在9月9日—9月10日凌晨,中国北方出现大范围降温,特别是黑龙江西北部地区出现了“低温霜冻”天气,对该区域大豆生长造成了影响,估计低温霜冻面积达到1478.5万亩,约占全省大豆播种面积的29.9%,产量损失预计为5.5亿斤,这将导致中国第四季度的大豆供应更趋于紧张。。。。后市,各大油厂“无米下锅”可能会越演越烈。 对短线来说——美盘油脂的持续走低,严重影响到内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约的走势,昨日内盘豆油 棕榈油双双下跌,多头抵抗信心破灭,盘面空头力量增强,特别是内盘棕榈油1901合约昨日长阴K线下跌表现, 短线的增仓下行——为空头主力主动进场打压, 内盘油脂商品短线的下挫走势开始明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,假期过后,昨日周二跳空低开开盘,盘面特征是“减仓下行”——这为多头止损逃跑盘口语言,造成昨日期价低开低走的中阴K线下跌。 今天周三早盘,期价再度低开低走,瞬间跌破7月25日前低的2157令吉特,盘面恐慌情绪再现,我们短线的多空对锁仓单继续持有。

小结:中美贸易战升级到极致,对全球经济增长减弱的担忧情绪蔓延到油脂商品上来,内盘 马盘油脂商品昨日今天两日期价下跌幅度较大,多头恐慌性止损出逃,空头趁机进场打压成为短线走势盘面特征———–由于我们此前早早就建议,多空锁单操作,暂时规避了政策性利空带来的无情伤害,操作上: 我们对锁仓单继续持有,一轮恐慌急跌之后,我们耐心等待空单逢低平仓离场机会的把握,继续关注美盘油脂下探寻支撑的空间大小。

[SUMMARY]
• Trade war between US and China have a significant spill over effect towards global edible oils.
• Currently, the bears gained the upper hand over the bulls in China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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