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Global Vegoils Analysis – 2 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.8.2日周四油脂商品短线多单继续谨慎持有

美盘大豆从上月7月16日低位酝酿“拐点”反身上涨之后,已经延续了一段时间,当前期价临近上方60天均线附近时候,出现了犹豫徘徊现象——-暂时期价在40—60天均线间震荡,该高度是个“可上可下”高度,关注后续成交量是否配合。 美盘豆油12月合约,在前期超跌之后,当前也追随美盘大豆期价上涨,但反弹上行幅度略弱,当前期价仅反弹到40天均线下方一点,在反弹动能尚未完全衰竭前,我们继续保持谨慎的“弱势反弹”观点不变,但需要内心警惕美盘突然变盘的可能性。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,近期期价温和反弹上涨,其中豆油反弹高度强于棕榈油(豆油暂时受阻于60天均线 而棕榈油只反弹到40天均线处),内盘油强棕榈油弱的盘面特点较为明显。。。今天周四盘面,二者继续红盘上涨表现,我们继续保持谨慎短多思维不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,最近一段时间仍困扰于出口需求放缓 产量预期增加的悲观情绪之下,盘面上好似有一只看不见的“隐形之手”在压制着市场,致使多头主力始终不能放开手脚一搏,造成当前马盘棕榈不上不下的局面, 整体依旧以横盘低位酝酿拐点大观点不变。

小结: 一年当中,夏季这个季节是植物油商品的消费淡季,整体需求不振与产量增加的双重困扰,造成当前内盘 马盘油脂商品昏昏欲睡的盘面感觉,既然多空主力都不发力,我们散户朋友也只好静观其变,同样以静制动的心态对待当前市场。 操作上:未出现变盘信号之前,前期多单继续持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Summer is the slack season for global edible oils as affected by low demand and increasing production.

[ACTION]
• Until further catalysts appear, traders are recommended to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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