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Global Vegoils Analysis – 2 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.7.2日周一密切关注马棕榈油反抽“箱体下沿”技术位置被阻挡?还是被突破?

美盘油脂反弹动能不足,市场缺失做多人气———-出于中美贸易战对美豆出口不利因素的担忧,多头主力被束缚住手脚。。。。虽然美盘油脂在短线技术上存在反弹要求,但在利空情绪的干扰下,空头主力始终把握着市场的运行节奏——-在此种心理因素下,若未来几天市场再突发什么过激言行(特朗普老头),我们一定要谨防美盘豆油12月合约,期价再次出现下挫的可能。

大陆内盘油脂市场——-中国政府高层,此次针对美国的无理挑衅态度,肯定是会态度坚决的“反击”, 至于报复性反击的程度,就看美国方面的具体力度,因此上中美贸易战主要还是看美方的具体观点态度——-美方的态度是目前我们所不能确定的,因此上我们散户朋友内心上那根紧绷的弦决不能放松,特别是七月初的最近几天,这点我们要提前提醒散户朋友。 。。当前内盘油脂豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,短线走势仍然保持反弹上行走势,特别是棕榈油已经是9连阳上涨,我们此前埋伏的多单要更加保持谨慎态度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,上周五盘面为冲高回落的阴K线表现——-当期价触及到原来被下破的“箱体下沿”位置时候(2350一线 上周五高点见到2348 相差仅2令吉特),市场也出现了一丝技术层面上的困扰——-是继续攻上去?还是被阻挡下来? 因此我们说,马盘棕榈油也反弹到关键位置了。。。今天周一盘面上为低开的十字星K线,恰好说明多空主力此刻的犹豫不决心态———-马盘棕榈油面临短线方向性选择。

小结:美盘豆油近期表现一直疲弱不堪,这严重影响到内盘 马盘油脂商品的“反弹高度”,同时马盘棕榈油靠近前期的“箱体下沿”附近,由于对中美贸易战事件的不确定性(利多? 利空?),后市油脂商品存在2种短线走势? 是上? 是下? 未来几天市场会做出一个选择——因此上,我们散户朋友内心深处也要时刻保持警惕,不可盲目乐观。操作上:前期多单暂时谨慎持有,若有任何盘面上的异常波动,可多单少量减仓。。。对于持有马盘棕榈油8月合约多单的散户朋友,临近交割前月,因此操作上更要“手快一些”,早先一步多单逢高出局(因为越是靠近交割月 平仓出局是迟早的事 那我们还不如选个更合适的点位 自己主动出击)。

[SUMMARY]
• Weak performance from US soybean oil affected China and Malaysia edible oils.
• Uncertainty from trade war between US and China increased trading difficulty.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.
• Traders who are holding August contract for Malaysia palm oil may take profits before the spot month approached.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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