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Global Vegoils Analysis – 2 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


进入到5月份,美国大豆开始播种,据美国农业部最新消息:当前美大豆播种进度为5%,一周前前为2%,低于去年同期的9%。。。随着后期播种进程逐步加速,后市天气炒作拉开序幕。 近期美大豆期价在较高位置波动震荡,而美豆油7月合约,依然保持下探走势,二者短线走势分化,买豆抛豆油跨品种操作成为美国期货市场主流,美豆油压力重重,在五一3天假期间,美豆油期价曾下探到30.15一线。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,本周一 周二停盘2天后,今天周三正式开盘交易,早盘期价低开,随后低开高走,上午盘面红盘中阳K线表现,期价与节前变化不大,盘中多头主力逢低仍积极护盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日5.1日周二停盘一天, 但在4月30日周一时候,期价出现中阴K线下跌,期价曾一度靠近2018年3月12日 4月17的低点位置 2350一线, 在前2次前低附近略有支撑,期价未下破2350一线低点。。。今天5月2日周三期价受内盘红盘上涨拉动,早盘高开,截止中午时分红盘表现。

小结:美盘豆油下挫走势依然,盘中疲软态势较为严重。 大陆内盘油脂多头护盘积极,马盘棕榈油由于出口数据下降(船运调查机构SGS称,马来西亚棕榈油4月份棕榈油出口环比减少4.5%), 这样看来马来西亚5月份棕榈油出口关税仍将保持为零关税的可能(印尼依然为零关税)。 考虑到美盘豆油短线下挫时间已经很长,下挫到30.15—30.50一线后,下方空间极其有限。 另外是马盘毛棕榈油7月, 前2次技术低点2350一线支撑力度比较强, 我们节后新操作建议为: 马盘毛棕榈油稳健型交易者可在2350上方逢低多单接盘,止损点就放下2350下方X点, 下破止损,不破则多单持有看反弹。 前期内盘 马盘激进型交易者多单继续谨慎持有,后市我们继续以超跌下探之后的酝酿反弹观点对待。

• US soybean oil continued its downward trend while China edible oil rallied.
• Malaysia palm oil fell due to low export data in April, zero export tax may still in effect.

• Conservative traders for Malaysia palm oil may initiate new position at 2350 and setting cut-loss level around 2320.
• Aggressive traders for Malaysia palm oil may continue to hold current short position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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