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Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.20日周三美盘大豆豆油昨日晚间“长长下影线”

美国总统特朗普挥舞大棒惊吓到全球投资人,对全球经济增长 全球贸易一体化制度的担忧情绪爆发到极致,全球经济人士信心有所动摇,这在昨日全球股票市场 外汇市场 期货市场引发“十二级海啸”,抛售狂潮来袭。。。昨日晚间,美盘黄豆连 豆油双双长阴K线下跌,期价最低点已经触及到十年前2008年经济危机时候的低点位置,可见,一个特朗普老头有多厉害,能把美国大豆 豆油期价打压到十年前低点。。。部分机警的投资人也敏锐的看到了“商机”,在2008年期价低点附近勇敢接盘多单(世界经济还能跟上特朗普崩溃?),美大豆 美豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间终盘以“长下影线”的阴K线收盘————-长长的下影线出现,是否是最后一根“金针探底”,这有待我们随后几天的盘面观察。

受利空消息来袭——昨日大陆内盘油脂商品市场商品走势分化,内盘大豆 豆粕1809主力合约是双双跳空上涨,期价呈反弹上行走势;而内盘豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约昨日周二盘面却是长阴K线暴跌,其中内盘豆油1809是跳空高开后晚节不保的“冲高回落”下跌, 内盘棕榈油1809合约是低开低走的直线下跌,期价终盘时候被打到跌停板价格,市场的惨烈程度可想而知。。。今天周三盘面,豆油高开高走,棕榈低开高走——-长阴K线右下角的小阳K线表现,昨日一波疯狂杀跌之后,今日期价略微止跌,关注今天棕榈油的小阳K线是否是后期的“早晨之星”K线雏形(启明星)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月(或8月),昨日马盘棕榈追随内盘油脂市场期价走低,由于棕榈油与豆油在竞争油脂市场份额,当全球豆油市场期价下跌时候,马盘棕榈油的日子也不好,马盘棕榈油期价昨日也呈中阴K线下挫到2250一线, 今天周三盘面期价继续围绕2250徘徊,马盘棕榈油短线呈下挫走势。

小结:全球经济增长信心,被特朗普老头瞬间搅乱,对全球贸易制度的危害担忧情绪陡然升温—–昨日油脂商品市场期价长阴暴跌,期价瞬间的下跌幅度加剧,美豆油甚至盘中期价被打回到十年前的2008经济危机时候的价格,后在多头护盘下,留下一根长长的下影线,这根下影线的出现——是否在给我们一个“没有声音的信号”的遐想空间?? 这点我们需要随后的日子保持关注。 操作上: 经过第一 第二次接盘多单之后,市场在经过昨日快速杀跌之后,杀跌动能今天有所耗尽,期价又被打压到一个新低层面,我们建议今天逢低第三次多单少量补仓—–以马棕榈油为列,前期多单综合持仓成本在2320计算,今天在2250一线补仓,最后的持仓成本大概为2285令吉,这价格我们后期还会看到,不用太担心,前期无仓交易者,也可今日多单 逢阴K线时候进场埋伏。

[SUMMARY]
• The intensifying trade war disrupted global economy.
• US soybean oil dropped until the price during 2008 financial crisis.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate small amount of short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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