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Global Vegoils Analysis – 20 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘黄豆连昨日晚间中阳K线上涨表现——-在本周一时候下破7月16日的前低之后,在前低下方只维持了2天时间就出现了阳K线上涨,并且是“阳包阴”K线走势,说明美盘大豆经过前期下跌之后,再继续下跌的意愿并不强烈。 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间为带下影线的小阳K线,说明下影线的低点位置也有多头力量支持,后市美盘油脂下挫空间我们依旧不看很大。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,本周二 三 四,3天时间下挫幅度扩大,盘中出现急跌现象, 特别是内盘棕榈油品种,3天时间出现下挫加速迹象, 盘中恐慌情绪浓厚,空头力量发挥威力。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12(或11月),本周二假期回来后,马盘棕榈油呈现跳空直线下跌,期价下跌幅度猛烈,盘面空头打压盘与多头止损出逃盘是造成当前盘面的主要动力来源, 我们前期多空对锁仓单继续持有。

小结:美盘油脂下破前低之后,昨日晚间阳K线表现,盘面未见任何恐慌情绪。。。。但内盘 马盘油脂商品却表现不同,盘面上出现“补跌”急挫迹象, 多亏我们持有的是多亏对锁仓单,暂时规避了这种恐慌情绪。 考虑到大陆内盘即将临近“中秋节”长假(24日 下周一),该日子也是美国特朗普将对中国2000亿商品征收关税的日子, 为规避风险——我们建议: 内盘 马盘 多空对锁仓单继续持有, 待假期回来后,我们再找机会“开锁”操作,再暂时规避一下假期不确定因素风险。

• Market’s sentiment remains calm after US soybean oil routed on yesterday trading day.
• China and Malaysia edible oil followed the footsteps of US soybean oil.

• Traders may initiate short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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