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Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.8.21日周二据消息传闻中美新一轮贸易谈判将在下周重启

当前美国大豆生长情况为结荚率91%,5年均值为85%,豆农对美大豆丰收预期强烈。。。通常来说美国 中国的新季大豆收获季节在9–10月份(巴西新豆种植时间在9月份),也就是说—–当前时节应该属于最“青黄不接”时刻(新豆未上市 去年旧豆销售殆尽),据中国海关数据,中国上周未进口一颗美国大豆。。。另据可靠消息:在8月末的未来几天—–中美贸易摩擦谈判将重启,市场人士表示关注,但恐对谈判结果不报良好预期。。。在这种尴尬境界下,美豆 美豆油短线走势纠结,这也是困扰美国油脂市场主要因素,今年油脂市场行情最难做——–下挫 徘徊 低位无序震荡成为主流。对美盘豆油我们继续保持“跌无可跌”之后的低位酝酿拐点观点不变。短线角度来说—–我们继续关注美豆在60天均线位置的具体表现(昨晚期价暂时小阴K线受阻)。

大陆内盘期货市场—–前段时间黑色贱金属(包括建材类 以及化工类PTA)表现耀眼,成为主流资金的追捧对象,螺纹钢 铁矿石 焦炭 玻璃 PTA均发动了一波反弹上扬行情(人民币贬值 部分小盘商品期价走高)。。。而我们所关心的油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,却依旧不温不火的无序波动震荡,市场成交清淡,逐步被主流资金所“遗忘”,因此从这个角度来说,今年内盘油脂商品非常难操作。。。(内盘交易者手中无油脂仓单交易者 可适量资金逢高短空贱金属 包括PTA 这类品种上涨幅度过大,存在获利盘涌出的冲高回落可能 操作时候尽量选择远期合约)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月(或10月),当前期价更是在大低位区域内无序横盘波动,阴阳小十字星的市场冷清表现,令散户操作者无所是从———马盘棕榈油当前出口数据不佳,产量高峰季节来临以及中美贸易战的不确定性 三大情绪困扰着整个市场,令棕榈油的替代豆油效应被市场暂时忽略,我们对未来第四季度以后的市场良好预期是我们中长线角度的唯一精神支柱,暂时对短线角度的无序震荡给予冷眼旁观。

小结:全球油脂市场短线角度走势“忽上忽下 飘忽不定”,市场操作难度增大,对于当前时期油脂市场——稳健型交易者可场外观望,关注美豆60天均线是否能技术上破。 而部分激进型散户朋友可少量多单谨慎持有,后市短线仍有横盘波动之后的短线反弹可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils market direction remain volatile and unclear.

[ACTION]
• Conservative traders may wait and observe the possibility of breakout for 60 moving average.
• Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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