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Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.21日周三油脂类商品依旧小幅震荡徘徊短线走势无新意

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日晚间又阴K线下跌表现,短线走势上右侧横盘波动震荡,期价纠缠于下降的趋势线内,均线系统随着期价右侧延伸而呈现出往右的平滑粘合迹象,美豆油继续以牺牲浪费短线时间的走势等待中线角度的调整到位,美豆油不上不下的模糊走势延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月, 由于最新数据显示马来西亚棕榈油3月份1–20日棕榈油出口量激增,大约出口比上月增长了13.6%—15.3%,达到90几吨,考虑到中东地区5月份斋月来临前需求数据强劲(会提前1个月抢在0关税之前备货),其中 印度 巴基斯坦 中国为主要进口国。 马棕榈5月昨日红盘阳K线表现,今天午盘前小阴K线走势, 期价暂时仍在技术关键位“箱体下沿”位置受到阻挡。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,短线走势比较尴尬,在夹缝中生存—–豆油追随美盘走势,棕榈油追随马盘走势,并且豆油走势比棕榈油更弱一些。。对内盘棕榈油来说—–马盘棕榈油是否能“冲破”原箱体上沿?成为关键短线方向指引。 而马盘棕榈油因抢占植物油市场份额,又的必须观察美盘豆油的走势,因此马盘棕榈也关键技术位前也不敢冒然单独行动, 这就是内盘 马盘油脂商品短线处境比较微妙的地方。

小结:国际原油市场期价再度上涨,昨日晚间纽约原油长阳飙涨至63.70一线,只可惜仍未能提振美盘豆油的表现,植物油市场还是略显徘徊,多空主力均小心翼翼,造成盘面走势期价小幅波动无序震荡, 我们需要谨慎一些了—-如果美盘豆油还是这么萎靡不振, 马盘棕榈油连续几天不能站上2460令吉特上方, 我们手中短线多单就要警惕起来——–老这样徘徊不前,势必会引起空头主力的注意力, 万一再猛打压一下,可能对我们散户朋友手中多单造成伤害。 因此上我们今天先在头脑思维上拉紧这根“弦”,在操作上我们暂时不盲动,多单谨慎暂时持有,多观察一下市场变化,若真见异常的风吹草动,我们可考虑减仓多单(先关注眼前 后考虑长期)。

[SUMMARY]
• Global crude oil market rallied, but failed to underpinned US soybean oil and other edible oils.
• If Malaysia palm oil failed to break 2,460 points in recent few days, there might be a possible to downtrend will occur.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.
• Should the market still in negative sentiment, closing current positions would be advisable.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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