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Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油7月合约,上周三(5月16日)瞬间假摔之后,周四 周五小阳K线红盘上涨,前期失地被收复,今天周一亚洲电子盘仍继续红盘表现,美豆油短线角度的技术性小碎步震荡上行走势延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,上周五发力上涨,今天周一又继续红盘上涨,特别是内盘棕榈油1809合约,从前期的4930低位已经触及到今天的5200高度,短线涨幅较明显。 内盘豆油盘中也曾上涨,但今天早盘出现多单逢高减仓迹象(上影线)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周五高开补涨,全天小阴十字星表现,今天周一早盘继续高开跳空补涨(2475开盘)—-马盘棕榈油被动型跟涨走势明显, 早盘的高开低走痕迹,表明部分多头存在逢高兑现利润减仓动作发生。

小结:据华盛顿19日消息: 中美贸易战情绪缓解,经过一纸磋商谈判声明,双方不会互相加征关税,贸易战出现结束信号——其中关于美中贸易逆差问题的解决办法是, 以中国扩大进口美国商品的积极主张,来抵消中国减少出口的消极主张, 取消美国单方面早期主张的“中国消减两千亿美元贸易顺差” 这种霸权的指令性计划指标, 并且维护了中国底线—-不干涉中国追求产业升级 自我发展的权利。。。 内盘油脂商品短线角度的反弹上行走势较为明显, 美盘略微启动上涨, 马盘毛棕榈油追随性跟涨,整体来说—-油脂商品的短线走势延续中,基本符合我们此前预期。具体操作上: 前期所有多单继续谨慎持有, 部分激进型交易者手中多单获利丰厚者可适度减仓,当前盘面情绪化波动较为剧烈,但不改短线反弹上行走势。

• China edible oils rose sharply as trade wars between China and US ceased.
• The ceased of trade wars also caused US soybean oil and Malaysia palm oil to increase dramatically.
• Volatility increased due to ceased of trade wars.

• Traders may hold current positions.
• Aggressive traders may take profit and close certain positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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