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Global Vegoils Analysis – 21 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.21日周五内外盘短线走势出现分化

美盘黄豆连昨日周四晚间中阳K线上涨表现,在周三低开高走的“阳包阴”K线上涨之后——已经形成两根错列上行的中阳K线,美大豆短暂下破前低之后的反身上行走势出现苗头。 美豆油12月合约,昨日晚间期价也呈现中阳K线上涨,虽然盘面上带上行影线,但也出现错列反身动作的“雏形”——–美盘油脂商品经过前期震荡下挫之后,虽说期价下破前低,但在技术下破之后,盘面未见任何恐慌情绪,反而是这两天期价又出现反身走强动作, 我们此前预测的“不破不立”有可能转为现实,美盘油脂的细微变化要引起我们的谨慎,继续关注下周短线这种反身上行走势是否能得到延续,对于美盘油脂商品此前的短空思维,我们从今天开始需要变的警惕起来(反身上行概率增加)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,本周几个交易日,期价下跌幅度较大,特别是棕榈油1901合约,期价已经四连阴表现,盘中急挫加速补跌迹象明显,内盘的恐慌情绪还在蔓延中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11),本周连续三连阴下跌(本周一停盘了一天 少了一天),短线走势与内盘棕榈油短线走势相似,盘面也呈现加速赶底走势, 今天周五上午盘面暂时小阳K线表现,真正的止跌信号还不是百分百明确。

小结: 在前期美盘油脂震荡小幅下挫走势时候,内盘马盘油脂商品是抵抗性追随,盘面期价尚未出现大的下跌, 但当美盘油脂下破前低之后,内盘 马盘油脂商品的恐慌情绪却开始显露,期价出现大幅度“补跌”,截止到本周末,当美盘油脂出现“反身”上行动作“雏形”之后,内盘马盘油脂商品却不为所动,仍处于下挫态势————–内外盘短线走势出现了令人不解的奇妙分化走势,这点要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。 。。相信这种分化走势不会持续太久,操作上: 考虑到美盘油脂已经出现反身上行动作,部分内盘 马盘激进型交易者可于今日适量的空单逢低减仓(但不必全部减完),谨防美盘油脂下周后市短线继续上冲。 而稳健型交易者继续多空对锁仓单持有,不见内盘 马盘出现明显的止跌信号空单不离场,待内盘下周“中秋节”假期回来,行情走势明朗后再开锁不迟(内盘下周25号 周二开盘交易)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil shown potential sign of rebound but China and Malaysia soybean oil did not follow suit.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may close certain short positions and take cautious of sudden bullish reversal of US soybean oil.
• Until further movement from China and Malaysia edible oils, conservative traders may continue to hold current short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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