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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


22.01.2018周一内盘马盘油脂商品今天周一盘面略有走强

美盘黄豆连短线走势与我们判断的一样,短线保持震荡上扬态势。美盘豆油3月合约,期价跌破去年12月底的前低后,期价惯性下挫,今天亚洲电子早盘红十字星表现,期价是否下挫企稳仍有待我们继续观察—–但这种“底背离”式下探,下方的空间正在逐步被压缩收窄。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周一早盘期价低开高走,中阳K线上涨表现,特别是内盘豆油1805合约,今天周一的阳K线已经吞没上周五的阴K线,期价略微出现止跌企稳苗头。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周五期价下跌已经非常靠近12月22日的前低位置(我们心中的底线位置),今天周一早盘期价高开高走阳K线表现,虽然尚不能表明短线下挫走势已经结束,但多少担忧情绪被略微化解,密切关注上周五跳空低开的小阴K线是否是“空头陷阱”?是否演变成“早晨之星”的可能,尚待周二周三短线走势的确认指引。

小结:在美盘豆油“喋喋不休”的下挫过程中,内盘马盘已经厌倦了该走势指引。今天周一早盘,内盘马盘油脂商品在前低附近出现一定的多头护盘动作,今天马盘内盘油脂商品的短线走强—–是否是低位“拐点”再次展开?关于这点尚待随后2天的市场验证,我们在第一根阳K线出现时候,尚不能100%做出明确判断,并且今天周一的多头护盘动作是否能真正成功?这点我们也不能完全确认,我们只能说,在前次低点位置期价出现一定的支撑力度—-毕竟前次低点时候,期价就是从这个位置开始反弹上行的,相信空头主力也看到了这点。具体操作上:前期低位左右多单继续少量持有,后市能否转势走强仍需继续盘中关注,届时我们再建议多单补仓,此时此刻该操作还为时过早一些。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues its decline, as China and Malaysia move indecisively.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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