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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.22日周五内盘棕榈油率先出现小幅上涨

美盘豆油12月合约,在6月19日本周二长下影线收盘后,随后这三天,期价在下影线的右侧横盘波动,期价下跌幅度收窄,做空能量得到了一定的释放, 但盘面明显的反身动能也却还没有出现,我们继续以急挫之后的右侧横盘整理观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1809主力合约,短线走势追随美盘豆油,在本周二长阴K线之后,三天来十字星横盘,期价略微出现止跌企稳。 内盘棕榈油1809合约,本周末的三天来,期价呈现错列反弹上行迹象———三根小阳K线,期价从低位略微上涨了100多点,但仍笼罩于本周二的长阴K线的阴影中————-后市短线走势,只有期价打破本周二的阴K线的负面影响,才能正式宣告反弹走势序幕拉开。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月(8月),最近三天(周三 周四 周五),期价也呈现阴阳K线的右侧横盘走势,短线走势不明确——但考虑到,期价经过前期急挫下跌之后(从5月24日开始 我们在下挫到13天后的6月12日当天 以及再度下破箱体下挫到现在为19–21天 我们两度多单接盘 其中技术位一个是箱体下沿 一个是击破之后 而13 21为费波纳茨数字), 马盘棕榈油短线也存在一定的超跌表现。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势由正常的回落整理演变成闻利空突然急挫——部分品种跌破前低 或者击破箱体下沿的技术支撑,整体来说短线的调整已经非常充分,技术上存在技术反弹要求, 唯一遗憾的是当前基本面的利空情绪还未吸收消化干净,因此盘面上行的难度压力还比较大,但我们继续保持短线下探寻底后的酝酿反弹观点不变,当前期价可以在本周二阴K线(贸易战重大利空的当天)右侧附近徘徊震荡,震荡之后还会有一波技术反弹要求。操作上:前期2次补仓摊低持仓成本后的短线多单继续谨慎持有,耐心等待利空消息的淡化。

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oils dived down after slight rebound yesterday. Selling pressure remain strong.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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