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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.5.22日周二棕榈强豆油弱密切关注美豆油在60天均线处后市表现

美盘豆油7月合约,不知不觉间,美豆油已经从本月初的30.15低点位置,反弹上行到今天的31.50一线,虽然盘中小碎步震荡爬升,并且还出现了一次“假摔”,但短线角度的技术性超跌后的反弹走势延续中,随着后期期价来到关键技术位—–空头排列的日K线图表上方最后一根均线60天线, 这是空头主要阻击位置,因为若多头上攻该高地后,空头排列的均线系统就有可能转化为多头排列,因此上空头肯定不会掉以轻心,让我们密切关注后市60天均线位置,美豆油的具体表现(建议散户朋友暂时以上攻观点看待 但也需谨防上攻失败的可能)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 内盘棕榈强豆油弱盘面特征明显——棕榈油1809主力合约,当前期价已经上攻60天均线上方,随着期价的拔高,均线系统的短期均线(5 10 20天均线)正准备“金叉”上穿40 60天均线——在这地方有2种走势可能(马盘棕榈油与内盘情况相同),1. 多头主力提振期价快速猛向上冲, 拉动下方短期均线金叉长期均线,令空头排列的均线系统演变成多头排列 ,则“反转态势”形成。 2. 多头上攻过程中遭遇空头主力阻击,期价受阻转为冲高回落(前期已经发生好多次了),宣告反弹失败。。。当前内盘 马盘棕榈油均存在选择这2种走势中的一条路, 让我们密切关注。 对内盘豆油来说,当前期价暂时受阻于60天均线,尚不能完全站在上方,因此短线走势上弱于棕榈油, 内盘豆油需要等待美豆油的后市指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,短线情况跟内盘棕榈油走势相似——昨日周一盘面跳空高开于2475令吉特,盘中多头存在逢高兑现利润减仓动作,因此终盘以高开低走的阴K线收盘,昨日的跳空缺口在盘中被弥补。 今天周二早盘期价继续高开于2450一线,盘面观察,反弹上行动能仍未出现衰竭信号,暂时仍以短多观点对待,具体后市走势参照内盘棕榈油思维。

小结:美盘豆油反弹临近到关键技术—-60天均线处,是否上攻成功? 则成为我们本周关注的焦点,这也是我们判断内盘 马盘本波反弹上行的高度的分水岭,因此上至关重要, 以我个人主观观点,我认为期价会继续上攻,但需谨防快速上攻之后的“回抽确认”(均线上穿,然后期价再回抽确认均线金叉的可靠性)。。。 还是那句老话 “一颗红心两手准备”, 提醒我们反弹观点对待同时谨防冲高回落的发生。 具体操作上: 前期多单在本周随后几天期价上冲过程,散户朋友注意逢高减仓,先把一部分利润兑现出来, 并且是越急涨越要多单减仓,那位散户朋友摸住高点,那位朋友算是真高手(有人说 鱼头鱼尾不要 只要鱼身中间一段 我们偏偏不能这样 反其道行之 鱼头 鱼尾都尽量啃一口 不能丢弃 尽量做到利润最大化)。 具体建议是“分批量 分层次”逐步减仓。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil rebounded and testing for breakout near EMA 60.
• Awaiting further market performance for reliable signal confirmation.

[ACTION]
• Traders may close positions gradually for profit taking.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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