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Global Vegoils Analysis – 22 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,上周四一根中阴K线下滑,令短线走势变得“谨慎起来”,存在前高受阻的嫌疑。但上周五晚间,期价呈现十字星阴K线表现,期价也未下跌很多,整体还在60天均线上方运行, 美盘豆油短线走势出现“模糊走势”——-前高不上破 下方60天均线还支撑,恐美豆油短线仍需要在前高与60天均线(30.00至28.70之间运行一段时间),美豆油到底是要上破还是再次考验下方60天线的支撑?这还需要我们本周继续观察。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,见美盘豆油迟迟不突破前高,上周四时候内盘油脂长阴K线下跌,期价下挫幅度较大,盘中出现失望情绪,空头主力趁机打压。上周五期价呈现长阴K线右下角的小阴K线——当今天看到美盘豆油并未出现明显下跌,今天周一早盘又小阳K线红盘表现,在继续等待美豆油的短线走势指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),短线走势不温不火,任由你美盘 内盘油脂商品剧烈波动, 马盘棕榈我行我素独自小幅波动徘徊,“不见兔子不撒鹰”——马棕榈在震荡徘徊中等待更明确的信号,未冒然随意盲目跟随。

小结:美盘豆油短线仍在60天均线上方运行—–暂时下有均线支撑 上有前高阻挡,在一个小的窄区间内运行,内盘情绪化反应稍微过大,马盘却不为所动。而我们散户朋友也建议先不盲目操作,继续关注美盘豆油最新短线走势状况, 整体来说: 中长线角度我们继续以探底后的向上酝酿反弹观点对待,短线角度的期价模糊走势暂时忽略。具体操作上: 稳健型交易者手中多单继续持有,激进型交易者部分减仓多单后,剩余仓单暂时不盲目操作,关注美豆油“心悸颤抖之后”到底会如何表现?

• U.S. soybean oil’s immediate support set around 60 days moving average.

• Focus on market movement from U.S. soybean.
• Aggressive traders may reduce current positions.
• Conservative traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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