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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.8.23日周四油脂商品中长线大周期角度我们依旧看好未来第四季度与来年第一季度的市场表现

中美新一轮贸易谈判即将重启,这引起部分油脂商品分析人士的关注,但由于中美高层双方的政治诉求分歧太大——表面看似一种“经济手段”,其实背后隐藏着很深的“政治目的”,因此指望短期的几次谈判就能缓解这种矛盾也是不现实的。。。市场人士大都也明白这层含义,因此上对本次中美谈判也就没指望有什么实质性进展。另外美国当前大豆种植区出现降雨,天气情况有利于大豆作物的生长,对未来大豆作物丰收预期也是困扰植物油市场的另一个因素。。。这也就造成美盘大豆短线角度“欲涨还跌”的尴尬局面, 美盘豆油12月合约昨日晚间期价阴K线下跌,期价暂时受阻于40天平均线位置,美盘油脂仍在纠结彷徨情绪中短线无序波动震荡中。

随着天气逐渐变凉,中国大陆后期将迎来“中秋”“国庆”节日的第四季度消费高峰期——-消费市场提前一个月备货行动开始纳入日程,由于当前豆粕市场期价略有下跌,因此各大油厂挺豆油期价的意愿强烈(油粕比的跷跷板作用),这也是内盘豆油1901主力合约本周连续四天期价右侧横盘波动的原因——虽然未出现盘面上涨,但期价也拒绝深度回调。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,当前期价在日K线图表上的60天均线上方运行,也呈现一种无序波动状态———–内盘油脂商品整体存在一种蠢蠢欲动的向上态势,但是,市场“有心无力”的僵局还需新的动能把僵局打破。。。。随时时间推移,后市油脂商品的“去库存”局面更为明朗后,油脂商品的“春天”相信会马上到来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在昨日公共假期停盘过后,今天周四早盘开盘交易,上午盘面成交依旧清淡,市场以小的十字星阴K线表现,在内盘 美盘油脂商品没有出现大的动作之前,马盘棕榈油仍然“以时间换空间”方式运行,短线盘面走势无新意,一种消磨时光的观望情绪仍在市场蔓延。

小结:无论新一轮贸易谈谈是否取得实质性进展,对植物油市场都将起到支撑提振作用,特别是对内盘豆油品种,因此整体油脂商品下方回落空间依旧有限,从中长线角度来说,逢回调进多仍是我们主流思维,仅仅是短线角度的各种纠结情绪对当前市场存在不利影响,我们仍然建议稳健型交易者暂时场外观望,部分激进型交易者手中少量(一点点)多单继续谨慎持有,耐心等待8月末后期消息面的进一步明朗。

[SUMMARY]
• Any progress from the discussion of trade war on Wednesday lend support for global edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Conservative traders may wait and observe any catalysts during month-end.
• Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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