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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.01.2018周二内盘马盘油脂商品昨日中阳之后今日期价小幅整理调整节奏

美盘豆油3月合约昨日周一晚间阴K线收盘,并未支持昨日内盘马盘昨日白天的中阳K线红盘上涨走势。对美盘豆油来说,当前疲软的现货市场的消极影响还间接的影响着期货市场,期货市场萎靡疲弱的走势尚不能一下扭转过来,并且,美豆油3月前低已经技术下破,下方新的技术支撑点还在寻找中,但具体到那个点位?这个不好回答。我们目前只能回答的是—-下方短线的回落空间正在一步步被压缩,让我们耐心等待“金针探底”或者长阳扭转时刻的到来。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨表现,并且中阳K线已经吞没了上周五的阴K线,短线走势已经出现反身走强迹象(特别是内盘豆油),今天周二盘面期价小幅整理,在等待美盘豆油走势的支持。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,在期价靠近前低位置时候,昨日周一早盘期价跳空高开高走,终盘阳K线上涨收盘。今天周二盘面,期价在昨日阳K线右侧小幅停顿整理,马盘棕榈油也出现些许止跌企稳苗头。

小结:美盘豆油尚未出现止跌企稳信号,内盘马盘油脂商品却出现一定的止跌苗头——虽然尚不能确认昨天周一的走势“反身上涨”就此开始(我们昨天已经提到过这个话题),但短线盘面的护盘动作还是存在一定能量,我们继续保持此前观点—–不破前低,早先多单不止损操作,后市短线下挫调整结束之后,仍有一波反弹上行机会,我们现在等待的就是美盘豆油何时能支持内盘马盘,以及我们低位补仓多单何时再进场?其实若按照内盘豆油来说——短线激进型散户朋友是可以补仓一点多单的,但稳健型交易者暂缓一下,再多观察一下美盘豆油的具体表现再动手也不会太迟。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean has yet to its any signal of a stop to its decline.
• The decline of China and Malaysia edible oils appears to be disrupted.
• Our outlook remains: we shall not stop losses until the previous low is breached.
• We are anticipating a rebound following the downward correction.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive short-term traders may add long positions.
• Defensive traders may stay put at the moment.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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