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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


昨日周一晚间,在连续几天反弹上涨之后,美大豆冲高回落的小阴K线表现。 美盘豆油12月合约周一为中阴K线。今天周二上午亚洲电子早盘又阴十字星走势,间接拖累内盘马盘油脂商品的周二表现,但我们继续保持中线下挫超跌之后的酝酿反弹拐点观点不变。

内盘期货市场受国家上周五开始的整治“污染减排”攻坚行动利多消息影响(河北唐山 邯郸 山西等地的炼焦 炼铁企业限产通知),内盘焦炭 螺纹钢 玻璃 等黑色商品大涨(包括PTA商品),内盘做多人气的聚集却没有传导到油脂商品身上。。。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,昨日周一期价冲高回落带上影线,今天周二早盘期价勉强红十字星“抵抗”表现,多单继续谨慎持有。

马来西亚方面—–近期令吉特汇率反弹,对马盘棕榈油期价不利。而马来西亚棕榈油产量开始进入高峰季节也是困扰马盘棕榈油期价走高的另一原因。马盘棕榈油基准9月合约,昨日周一期价高开低走的长阴K线下跌,短线盘面多头人气仍比较涣散, 提醒我们,暂时把反弹上行走势以弱势反弹观点对待。 同时, 关注明日周三,马来西亚船运调查机构公布的7月份出口数据情况。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势“一波三折”,盘面缺少凌厉走势,短线多空主力均较为谨慎,各个品种成交量较为低迷, 在短线迷茫阶段—-我们继续保持低位的酝酿反弹观点不变。 操作上:前期多单继续持有,依旧把7月16日前低作为多单止损点,不破不止损(下破低点下方X点作为个人心理的止损位)。

• Global edible oils experienced low trading volume and weak momentum.

• Traders may hold current positions.
• Traders may also continue to hold current positions if the market failed to break the support level.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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