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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.23日周五美盘豆油上涨未能得到延续昨晚再度中阴下跌

美盘豆油5月合约,周三时候长阳上涨,大有一鼓作气上冲意向。。。可昨日周四晚间,如同“扶不起来的阿斗一样”(三国中 刘备家孩子),再度中阴K线疲软, 一会暴涨一会暴跌—–这美豆油就跟投资人开玩笑一般,玩弄散户朋友于股掌间——-这样一来,期价又再次回到短线的右侧横盘波动震荡走势中(未形成错列2根上冲阳K线), 我们一直提醒“一颗红心两手准备”,看来这种担忧不是多余的, 昨日报告中我们曾用到“凶残”二字来描述主力行为,美盘豆油便是这样—–“绞杀”, 周三上涨杀空头散户,周四下跌再杀追多散户,多空均杀,横盘无序波动走势最容易出现这种现象——其实期价并没有多大变化,仅仅是情绪上的“一种找不到方向的躁动”, 我们继续冷眼关注这种阴阳K线的波动徘徊(其实是用短线波动震荡 在给中线周期拖延时间)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,追随美盘豆油横盘波动,期价变化不大,仍处于犹豫徘徊阶段,短线走势方向性不明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,前10个交易日期价呈低位反弹上行走势,但反弹到原箱体下沿部位后,期价也出现了徘徊不前迹象,我们也说过,马棕榈不能一直在这个部位犹豫徘徊试探, 你一直在地板 天花板转换的这个洞洞里“冒头试探”, 这对空头主力来说 ,这也算一种挑衅行为, 要么你就果断的冲过去。。。可惜马盘多头主力不够坚决。

小结:最新消息:2018年3月23日,商务部发布了针对美国进口钢铁和铝产品232措施的中止减让产品清单并征求公众意见,拟对自美进口部分产品加征关税,以平衡因美国对进口钢铁和铝产品加征关税给中方利益造成的损失。该清单暂定包含7类、128个税项产品,按2017年统计,涉及美对华约30亿美元出口。第一部分共计120个税项,涉及美对华9.77亿美元出口,包括鲜水果、干果及坚果制品、葡萄酒、改性乙醇、花旗参、无缝钢管等产品,拟加征15%的关税。第二部分共计8个税项,涉及美对华19.92亿美元出口,包括猪肉及制品、回收铝等产品,拟加征25%的关税——从清单中我们并未发现农产品大豆的影子, 但中国的反制政策确是相当明显,中美贸易摩擦升级, 这令全球各大经济体恐慌,昨日全球各大股市全部暴跌, 道琼斯(下跌724点) 标准普尔500 日经指数 香港恒生指数 中国上证指数 无一幸免。。。今天国内期货市场 螺纹钢 铁矿石 玻璃 焦炭全部阴K线大跌, 甚至上海橡胶午盘前以跌停报收(下跌7.03%),全球投资人对经济担忧情绪上升。。。。对我们关心的油脂商品来说, 由于当前期价一直处于大的低价区域,近期也并未发生过明显的大涨行情,因此期价下跌意愿并不算强烈,但我们需要警惕的是—–谨防其他大宗商品的悲观情绪传导到油脂商品上, 这种担忧不可掉以轻心,因此我们在谨慎看多情怀下,在具体操作上时刻要做好最坏打算, 万一盘中出现不利情况,散户朋友手中多单一定要适量减仓,不可一根筋拿到底, 时时注意盘面的最新变化, 宁肯少赚 不可赔本,这是我们的中心思想, 希望散户朋友理解。

[SUMMARY]
• On Friday, US government imposed tariff on China’s 128 export products, while China retaliated with similar tariff on US’s products.
• The list of China’s products which will be tariffed does not include soybean products.
• Trade war fuelled fear upon global economy, causing retreat on several bourses such as NASDAQ, HSI, S&P 500 and others.
• Commodity markets for precious metals (Glass, Coal, Rebar, etc) affected by the trade war except soybean oil.
• Plunging on soybean oil less severe than equities and other derivatives.

[ACTION]
• Be cautious regarding the negative sentiment from other derivatives.
• Should the soybean oil market become volatile, traders are strongly advised to close positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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