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Global Vegoils Analysis – 23 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.11.23日周五新老多单继续持有

美盘豆油1月合约,周三晚间中阳红盘上涨,超跌之后的低位反身动作明显,美盘油脂商品多头主力开始发力,做多人气主要寄托到本月底最后几天在阿根廷中美领导人的会面谈判,无论谈判成功与否,我们技术层面的短多思维不变,等待美盘“感恩节”假期回来后的市场后续表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆粕1901主力合约,今天周五盘面承压—–因为一旦未来几天中美谈判成功,中国又恢复进口美国大豆,这对中国大豆 豆粕市场会形成一个“反跷跷板”的利空情绪(美国利多),今天内盘大豆 豆粕出现情绪上的波动。 内盘豆油1901主力合约, 今天期价追随内盘大豆 豆粕略微走低,因为中国若进口美国大豆这会在一定程度上利空豆油(大豆供应恢复)。。。内盘棕榈油今天周五盘面期价小幅走强,盘面受马盘棕榈油走强提振。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),昨日周四期价中阳K线上涨,本周三瞬间见低点后,连续2天中阳K线上涨,盘面“错列”的反身动作痕迹明显。。。。前面报告我们早早就分析过——马盘棕榈油2000令吉特之下,可以瞬间急挫一下,但不会长久维持,19XX 18XX的价格绝对具有中长线多单投资价值, 瞬间砸的“大坑”,必然是“空头陷阱”——在18XX价格上追空的人短短2天时间已经被套。 今天周五马盘棕榈油又回到2000令吉特附近。

小结:同样一件“事件”——中美领导人会面谈判的结果, 一方利多大豆出口国(美国),另一方利空进口国(中国),因此内盘 美盘油脂商品上当前 投资人士 的短线心态是不一样的, 这也是相同的一个基本面却带来两种情绪反应,这也是油脂商品分析研判难度增加的主要原因, 虽然目前特朗普 习近平 会面谈判的结果我们还不能确定, 但肯定会出现 美盘 内盘短线走势上的分化,甚至不排除未来几天期价会出现“异常的剧烈波动”, 这点是需要我们本月底前需要注意的地方。 暂时我们继续短多思维对待。 操作上: 前期内盘 马盘 棕榈油新老多单继续持有, 内盘 豆油 豆粕 大豆上多单谨慎持有。

[SUMMARY]
• The outcome from the meeting between U.S. and China will spur more volatility in near future.
• Uncertainty looming in global edible oils.
• U.S. soybean oil may rally while China edible oils may fall.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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