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Global Vegoils Analysis – 25 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.25日周二部分激进型稳健型交易者空单适量减持多空开锁操作逐步展开

进入到9月末,美国大豆临近收割月,据最新消息,当前美国大豆收割率为14%,后期大面积收获将逐步展开。。。美盘豆油12月合约,从上周9月19日开始,已经连续“四连阳”红盘上涨,短线盘面的“反身上行”走势较为明显,当前期价已经反弹至日K线图表上60天均线位置,若该位置被向上突破,则存在继续反弹空间。

经过3天“中秋节”小假期,大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周二开盘交易,今天早盘期价跳空高开小阳K线上涨表现,上周末的惯性下跌信号被扭转,继续关注本周初开始,是否会演变成“反身”上行走势。

马盘棕榈油基准12月合约(或11月),昨日周一,期价高开十字星表现,比内盘油脂提前一个交易日出现反身动作,考虑到周边外围植物油市场出现期价走高,马盘前期的疲软走低态势也许将被扭转,不排除马棕榈今天红盘上涨表现(当前马盘棕榈油尚未开盘)。

小结: 美盘豆油出现反身上涨动作, 短线走势上符合我们上周末时候的心理预期。 内盘油脂经过3天假期,今天开盘后红盘表现,这将提振马盘棕榈油今天周二的盘面表现,后市短线存在超跌之后的反弹走势可能,我们继续关注本周的市场表现。具体操作上: 在上周五时候,我们建议部分激进型交易者可以逢低部分空单减仓操作(美盘豆油当时率先出现短线走强), 在内盘假期期价,美盘豆油仍继续走强,因此上我们今天建议,原先多空对锁的仓单今天继续减持空单,用2天时间(今天 明天)空单减持完毕,后市油脂商品存在反弹上涨可能, 若美盘豆油上冲过60天均线的技术阻挡,我们还可以进一步的反手多单补仓操作。。。。今天稳健型交易者暂时先把对锁仓单中的空单了结一部分,形成多单多 空单少的“开锁”局面,继续关注后市短线的反弹上行的持续性。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil drifted higher, alongside with China edible oils which also lifted Malaysia palm oil on Tuesday.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may close certain short positions within 2 days.
• If US soybean oil manages to break above 60 days moving average, traders may consider to initiate new long positions.
• Conservative traders may also close certain short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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