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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘黄大豆短线反弹上行呈现加速状态,当前期价已经接近一年来的新高点(阿根廷干旱 大豆预期减产)。 美盘豆油5月合约也开始按耐不住,内盘春节假期过后,美豆油也开始从低位震荡反弹上行——-上周五晚间期价阳K线盘上涨(带上影线),今天周一亚洲电子盘继续阳K线表现,期价超跌之后的技术性反弹触及日K线图表上40天均线处,盘中观察,美盘豆油反弹动能充沛,后市仍有上行能量,我们暂时把第一目标看高到60天均线位置33.10一线(密切关注触及到60天均线时候 能否形成均线“金叉”向上 若金叉成立 则有可能形成一波 中级反弹行情 )。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,上周四是内盘春节7天长假回来的首个交易日, 上周四 上周五 今天周一——已经连续3天期价上涨,特别是上周五更是长阳飙涨,一举打破此前僵持局面率先发动反弹上行,我们继续短多看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,在上周四时候我们报告中建议“新多单进场逢低补仓操作”,上周五期价高开高走中阳K线上涨收盘,今天又在内盘 美盘油脂商品上涨提振下——-早盘跳空高开, 期价一举跳上60天均线上方,前期短线横盘波动震荡走势有望被向上突破,多单继续持有。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线反弹走势成立,连续3天的拉升已经明确了短线走势方向,我们接下来的关注焦点继续放在“反弹高度与反弹动能”上来。。。考虑到内盘 马盘已经连续3天上行,短线分时指标存在一定“超买”迹象,随后2天(本周二 周三)期价存在更小周期上的小幅回落整理要求,但这个小幅调整不会影响短线周期角度的继续反弹。 具体操作上:内盘 马盘新老多单继续持有,后市继续看高一线。 部分激进型散户交易者可逢盘中急速上冲时刻部分多单兑现利润,待更小周期的小幅回落时候再多单逢低接回。 而稳健型交易者 或操盘手法不熟练交易者不建议该操作。

• Focus on the peak of the rally after US soybean oil short term rally trend confirmed.
• Short term indicator displayed “overbought” after China and Malaysia market showed uptrend.

• Aggressive traders are recommended to take profit for part of their portfolio, and initiate new position when correction phase occurred.
• Conservative/unexperienced traders are advised not to follow the above strategy.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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