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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.01.2018周五全球外汇市场异常波动对油脂商品市场影响严重

美盘豆油3月合约,在连续2根阳K线上涨之后,昨日周四晚间阴K线下跌,今天周五亚洲电子盘截止目前阳K线表现—–2阳夹一阴走势还在持续中,不必过度担忧昨日的阴K线表现,继续短多观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日内盘油脂商品小阴K线小幅整理,在三天阳K线上涨之后,出现该动作为正常现象,短线走势基本符合我们心理预期。今天周五上午盘面,内盘油脂期价继续低开高走中阳K线红盘上涨表现,并且今天的阳K线已经收复昨日的失地,我们继续保持短多观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日期价也下挫整理走势—–但马盘毛棕榈油昨日表现略显“夸张”,原本预期的小阴K线,却在下午收盘前的最后10分钟,期价猛烈下挫,因此形成了中阴K线下跌走势,这主要是受马币令吉特汇率市场异常波动造成的—–马币令吉特近期持续坚挺,昨日兑美元上扬0.7%至3.8840,这对马来西亚棕榈油出口竞争力来说可是个严重的利空消息。

小结:美元指数从去年初(2017.1月初)至2018年1月底的现在,就持续保持下挫走势,并且在昨日周四晚间见新低88.429,这是4年来的低点位置,这波连续13个月的下跌走势,对全球油脂商品价格带来严重影响——贵金属黄金,有色金属铜锌国际原油,外汇市场中欧元兑美元,英镑兑美元均有不同程度的上涨。但对农作物油脂商品来说,却没有丝毫上涨提振作用(农产品不带有金融属性,也不带有金属属性,美元对其影响相对最小),反而马币令吉特的相对走强,令马棕榈期价出现走低。考虑到美元指数13个月下挫之后,下方的回落空间已经逐步变窄,后市短线存在技术反弹要求。对油脂商品来说,当前的短线反弹动能仍未衰竭(仅仅是马盘棕榈油昨日下挫幅度稍大了些),我们继续短多观点对待。操作上:新老多单继续持有,密切关注下周美盘豆油的走势。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues to rally on the back of rising futures prices on China and Malaysia edible oils.
• Given the emergence of a minor correction, our short-term long outlook remains.
• We shall turn our focus to the height of the reversal.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold or initiate long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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