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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.26日周二当前基本面情况陷入真空期前途未卜油脂市场低位徘徊震荡

中美贸易摩擦口水战几起几落,剧情跌宕起伏—–全球投资人一时间摸不清头脑,出于对全球经济的担忧令前期恐慌盘疯狂抛售,全球股票市场利空影响最大,各国股市全部遭到殃及无一幸免。。。对于期货市场的油脂商品来说,美国大豆出口受到严重困扰,最心焦的是美国豆农, 中国60%的大豆进口几乎都是美豆,若中国转从巴西进口,则美豆后期的销售前景堪忧,但从中国方面来讲,进口其他国家大豆—– 一是盘量太小 中国需求太大, 二是 采购 运输 装运 港口配套设施不完善(比如巴西就经常卡车司机大罢工)。 英国媒体记者就曾形象描述中美两国当前形象——一条马路上,面对面急驶过来2辆车,谁也不肯先行避让退却,就急冲冲对撞过来,不到最后一分钟看不出谁先转动方向盘,金融市场人士均在等待7月初的中美两国如何具体演绎,投资人都在忐忑不安中观望。 对美盘豆油12月合约来说—–受美大豆出口不利利空情绪影响,美豆油急跌之后小幅横盘震荡,今天是第5个交易日,盘面上下行压力还是比较严重,短线走势仍比较模糊,市场观望情绪较浓。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油,追随美盘豆油走势,5天来期价一直阴阳十字星波动震荡,短线盘面成交清淡,期价暂时陷入僵局阶段。内盘棕榈油1809主力合约,期价5连阳K线小幅上涨,虽说期价涨幅不大,但短线走势略强于豆油。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,期价阴阳K线交错波动徘徊,盘面整体变化不大,马来西亚当前棕榈油产量小幅下降,但当前棕榈油出口需求也在同步下降,这令马盘棕榈油短线走势也呈模糊状态,虽说马盘棕榈油也存在技术上超跌之后的技术反弹要求,但在全球大宗商品下行压力拖累下,在当前恐慌情绪未完全消除前,马盘棕榈短线也呈蛰伏不动状态。

小结: 美盘油脂受利空情绪心理压力影响依旧严重,美盘期价下挫压力还是比较大。 内盘棕榈油期价小幅上涨,马盘棕榈油介于二者之间横盘波动—–全球油脂商品短线陷入僵持阶段,耐心等待市场消息面的进一步明朗化,具体观察一下7月初中美双方的态度,由于当前事态发展的不确定性,可能后期会对盘面再次发动新一波冲击(目前不能排除该可能性),这点我们也要在心理上保持一定的警惕。 操作上:前期多单谨慎持有,暂且不盲目短线操作,等待市场后续指引。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils remained volatile.
• China palm oil market rose slightly while Malaysia palm oil is in tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• More news from trade war needed for a clearer market direction.

[ACTION]
• Traders should continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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