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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11月22日,上周四是美国传统节日“感恩节”,美国民众持续到本周末都在狂欢中度过。。。美盘豆油1月合约,在感恩节前夜中阳K线上涨之后,期价暂时止跌企稳,但当前基本面情况仍旧不明朗———G20峰会(20国集团 国际经济合作论坛)即将在阿根廷召开, 20国领导人将在11月30日—12月1日在布宜诺斯艾利斯会面,其中特朗普与习近平的会面最为引人关注,中美贸易摩擦具体如何发展演绎,油脂市场人士正在紧密关注中,任何消息面的风吹草动都会引起油脂市场的剧烈波动,当前是风暴来袭前的片刻“宁静”。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一上午盘面,豆油阳K线红盘表现,棕榈油阴十字星表现——内盘油脂商品期价小幅波动,多空主力在悄悄调整仓位,以规避未来几天不确定因素给市场带来的盘面“剧烈变化”。

马盘毛棕榈油受中美贸易战影响不是很严重,马盘棕榈油更多的是受本国基本面情况,此前,马来西亚棕榈油局公布的库存数据,令马盘棕榈油急速下跌,然后在11月21 22日两天时间又快速反身暴涨。。。马盘棕榈油基准1月短线期价“反复”动作明显。。。对马盘棕榈油来说—–无论中美贸易谈判结果如何,马棕榈油总是要追随一方来演绎,无论是跟随中国大连油脂市场,还是跟随美国油脂市场,对马盘棕榈油来说——跟谁也可以。

小结:中美最高领导人阿根廷会面在即,谈判是否成功? 仍是悬在油脂市场人士头上的一把“利剑”,后市会伤害到那方? 现在还不好判断, 在暴风雨来袭前夕,油脂市场暂时在平静中观望等待。 我们从技术层面观察, 内盘 马盘油脂商品在前期超跌之后,仍然存在技术上的反弹修复要求,因此我们继续以短多观点对待。操作上:前期新老多单继续谨慎持有,在消息面情况不确定因素下,恐油脂市场仍会在“尴尬”“左右为难”纠结情绪中小幅波动几天, 继续等待消息面情况的明朗。

• Market anticipating upcoming meeting between China and U.S at G20 summit, awaiting the outcome for the next move.

• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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