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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Oct 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.10.26日周五美盘豆油短线回落走势延续中关注下方回落空间大小

进入10月份,当前美国大豆正是收获季节,截止到目前,美大豆收割率已经过半(55%左右)———–通常来说,在收获季节,农作物的价格往往是一年中最低时候,大量新豆上市的心理压力恐会影响商品期货市场。。。近期美大豆价格短线下跌,已经跌到十年前的水平,当然这中间也有“中美贸易摩擦”客观条件的影响,中美两国关系的不确定性也是造成今年后半年期货市场操作难度大增的主要原因—–市场往往突然变脸,短线持续性不强,这给我们在具体技术研判上带来不少困难。 对美豆油12月合约来说:短线上攻受阻后,期价再次转为下寻支撑, 在下破60天均线的支撑后,盘面也并未出现大的恐慌—–整体处于一个死猪不怕开水烫的局面, 从中长期角度来说,我个人认为仍处于一个大周期的横盘筑底阶段,短线的回落空间并不看很大。 只是由于美豆油短线的再度走软,因此属于心理上防备性预防操作,在下周我们将继续考虑逢低空单减持操作,继续关注美豆油下方的回落空间仍是我们下周的关注焦点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,在美盘豆油下破60天均线后,内盘油脂出现大的下挫动作,盘中出现了一定的恐慌情绪(周三 周四阴K线下跌), 今天周五盘面暂时小十字星表现,对于美盘豆油后市下挫空间大小的不确定性,是造成内盘油脂短线急跌的主要原因,我们暂时建议继续锁仓操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),当美盘豆油 内盘油脂 甚至国际原油出现走低时候,马盘棕榈油不能不被殃及,本周三周四两天的阴K线跳空,说明马盘棕榈油追随性跟随性质很强烈, 这也跟马来西亚当前250万吨的高库存心理压力分不开,后期马棕榈油去库存仍为首要任务,暂时短线短空观点对待。

小结:美豆油未能上破前高,期价出现下破60天均线,但仍未到9月19日开始反弹上行的那个低点位置(当前仅仅回撤了60%左右),而内盘 马盘油脂商品却已经提前跌破9月21的前低位置,所以说内盘 马盘油脂表现的有点过头,我们当前建议暂时多空仓单锁仓——其中的空单数量略大于多单, 但是,这不等于我们极具看空很多,只是紧急状态的下的一个“权宜之计”,后市短线急跌过后,我们还是会第一时间空单首先离场,中长线筑大底阶段我们仍以短空长多观点保持不变,下周回来,我们短线角度会建议遇急跌,空单逢低兑现离场,后市,我们心理层面仍以多单操作为主,这才是我们的主要中心思想。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil broke support level at 60 days moving average, no sign of recovery soon.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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