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Global Vegoils Analysis – 26 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.26日周三美盘豆油“5连阳”反身上涨

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间继续红盘小阳K线表现,不经意间已经是5连阳上涨表现,当前期价已经悄悄站上日K线图表60天均线的上方(28.50一线), 而原来空头排列的均线系统,下方的短期均线正在准备“上穿”, 是否能“金叉上穿”成功——-是我们本周所关注的焦点,在反身动能未衰竭前,我们继续短多思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周二为中秋节假期过后的第一个交易日,早盘期价小幅高开走强,特别是内盘豆油1901合约,全日期价震荡走高(棕榈油十字星),今天周三上午盘面,期价继续红盘上涨表现,内盘豆油已经是错列的2连阳上涨态势,反身动作略微明显起来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11),本周一率先十字星高开,本周二又红盘小阳K线表现,今天周三暂时十字星表现——马盘棕榈油短线期价也同样出现“反身走强”迹象苗头,上周补跌的疲软态势被稍微扭转, 关注后市短线发力走强的持续性能否得到延续。

小结:关于美盘油脂商品,我们很早就下结论——-在期价跌破7月中旬前低之后,我们就判断为“不破不立”的短暂下破,下方空间不会很大。。。。倒是内盘 马盘油脂商品出现出了几天令人意外的恐慌性“补跌”局面,盘中出现猛烈的急挫补跌现象, 还好我们是多空仓单锁仓操作,暂时规避了短线风险。 在美盘豆油出现反身动作之后,我们上周五跟昨天建议逢低部分空单平仓离场解锁,今天未解锁干净的交易者,继续空单平仓出场。其中, 部分激进型交易者还可以适量低位多单加仓,来摊低一下我们空单离场后 ,手中剩余裸仓多单的持仓成本,后市短线我们以谨慎短多观点对待, 密切关注后市短线反弹上行的持续性。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils showed sign of plunge while US soybean oil rebounded.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate small amount of long positions.
• Traders may continue to close current short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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