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Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


让我们笼统回忆下2018年开始的中美贸易摩擦——-在3月份美国宣布对中国钢铁 铝材征收25%关税,在7月6日对中国340亿美元征收25%关税,就在前几天的8月24日又对160亿中国商品征收25%关税。特朗普老头还恐吓,将在9月份对中国2000亿商品再征收25%关税。。。哇 这是往死里下狠手啊! 兔子急了还咬人,中国方面也寸土不让,同样给予对进口于美国的同样数量商品征收关税———中美贸易战愈演愈烈,极大的伤害了全球经济,特别是金融市场分析人士的信心。 美盘大豆这几天再度闻利空期价下跌 (又靠近850美分),随远隔万里我们也能深深感觉到美豆农内心中那份无奈。 美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间勉强红盘收盘,期价延续横盘波动状态。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,今天周一早盘期价出现异动,多头主力在坚挺了一周时间的抵抗后,今天周一终于失去了信心,早盘期价低开低走中阴K线下跌表现,油脂市场再度被利空情绪所包围。

马来西亚棕榈油市场虽然不在中美贸易战的主战场——但同样间接性受到干扰,今天周一早盘,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,期价追随性低开,截止上午盘面,暂时呈现低开高走的小阳K线, 内盘油脂市场的悲观情绪也不经意间蔓延到马盘棕榈油市场(棕榈油 豆油 互相竞争市场份额 二者的替代作用 永远是一根线上的两只蚂蚱)。

小结:今天内盘油脂商品率先出现期价下挫迹象,盘面短线走势再度疲软,间接传导到马盘棕榈,虽然美豆油尚未出现多大变化,但内盘油脂商品的下跌走势还是比较明显。 操作上:稳健型交易继续场外观望, 部分少量激进型交易者手中的接盘多单被套后(单量一点点),暂时不必恐慌止损减仓,注意关注一下美盘是否追随内盘同样走低, 短线下挫整理不怕,只要下方回落空间不是很大,我们届时还会在更低位多单补仓(短线看下挫整理 中长线继续以低位区域酝酿拐点观点不变—-短空长多)。

• China soybean oil routed and spill-over to Malaysia palm oil.

• Conservative traders may wait and observe for better market entry to appear.
• Aggressive traders may hold small amount of positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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