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Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘大豆昨日周四晚间冲高回落,盘面上有技术反弹要求,但心理层面心理压力依旧较大。 美豆油12月合约,昨日晚间也是冲高回落的阴K线表现,期价刚准备反弹上行,既遭到空头主力的打压,今天亚洲电子早盘仍顽强红盘表现, 在上攻动能未衰竭前,我们继续保持低位酝酿拐点观点不变,后期关注上涨空间的大小(暂时定义为 弱势反弹)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,在昨日红盘上涨之后,今天周五早盘期价也出现冲高回落走势,但在多头主力的顽强抵抗下,上午盘面以带下影线的小阴K线暂时收盘,表明多头主力仍未完全放弃反弹上攻欲望,我们继续短多看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月(或9月),昨日周四盘面跳空高开高走的中阳K线上涨,令周二周三新空全部被套,今天周五早盘期价继续红盘表现,马来西亚最新公布的出口数据暂时利多棕榈市场(马棕榈7月份出口量高于6月份 出口增长),继续短多思维对待。

小结:全球植物油商品短线角度的超跌反弹走势延续中,虽然目前涨幅不大,但我们的短多观点继续保持不变,在反弹动能未出现衰竭信号前,前期多单继续谨慎持有。 对于马盘棕榈油来说——远月合约价格大于近月合约(正向市场),表明市场人士对于第四季度以及来年2019年的第一季度后市仍有看多情怀,仅仅是当前短线走势略微疲软,让我们耐心忍耐过去这段心态烦躁模糊时期,暂时短线操作为主。

• Global edible oils are in tailwind position despite low gain rate.

• Traders may hold current positions before global edible oils lose its momentum.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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