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Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.27日周二大陆内盘油脂商品横盘震荡继续关注中美贸易摩擦事态发展

这几天全球多个国家经济体媒体电台传媒均争相报道中美贸易大战,各种呼声 各类观点影响到全球人,其中悲观情绪占到大多数—-伤敌一千 自亡八百—— 没有赢家,只会把全球经济拖进泥潭,经济贸易壁垒成本加大。随着铺天盖地的指责中,美国方面好像已经见到一丝春风,美国财长率先向中国伸出了“和平橄榄枝”—–谈判。 其实中国方面也早做好了心理准备—–中国高层智囊团经济学者已经把 特朗普老头 怪异性格研究透了,中国虽然是被动迎接“大棒”,但中国高层态度却是坚定的“决不退缩”——如果特朗普只是为了满足缩减美中贸易逆差,这个可以谈判桌上谈/ 若美国是刻意压制中国复兴试图改变中国产业政策,这中国是不会答应的。。。中国吃过这方面的大亏,想当年英国政府因为对清政府贸易合作不满意,竟然划着船从另半个地球侵略了中国“八国联军” 有了那次教训,中国不会再同一个坑里跌倒2次。让我们继续关注后续中美贸易战对全球经济的影响。

对美国大豆主产区的豆农来说,相信这几天一定忧心忡忡,中国尚未把美大豆列上报复性关税清单表,这就像一把悬在头顶的宝剑,令美国豆农寝食难安。。。其实美国10个大豆主产州的选票,其中有8个州当时投给了特朗普,相信特朗普5月份中期大选内心压力也小不了。 对期货市场美盘油脂商品来说,当前期价承压走软,这也是可以理解, 美盘豆油5月合约,抵抗性下挫十字星整理,对未来贸易战事态发展的不确定性仍在市场蔓延。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805合约,近期期价右侧短线横盘震荡,期价日内阴阳K线无序波动,但短线方向性走势不强,我们在保持谨慎的看多观点不变前提下,继续关注贸易摩擦事态的后续发展对内盘市场期价的影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,当前短线走势处于中美油脂商品的“夹缝”中,可上可下的心态完全取决于中美事件的态度变化,但至于马盘棕榈油受那方走势影响更重一些,我个人认为也许会更倾向美盘原油 豆油更重一些。当前马棕榈油5月,昨日高开红十字星,今天周二低开阴十字星, 期价仍在原箱体下沿的下方运行,虽然期价下跌不大,但盘面却略显疲软。

小结:全球油脂类商品当前在较低价格大区域内运行,向下的运行空间有限,但往上的动能意愿却也不强烈,再加上当前基本面情况错综复杂,市场前途心理情绪不明显,造成当前短线的“不上不下”的模糊走势。我们当初的操作建议是: 无仓的散户朋友场外观望,油脂商品暂时“食之无味 弃之可惜”的鸡肋行情。内盘油脂商品多单暂时谨慎持有, 马盘油脂商品激进型交易者可适量减仓多单,稳健型交易者冷眼旁边, 为防止意外情况发生,部分散户朋友可跨品种—-在贵金属黄金上少量持有多单,后市一旦中美谈判不拢 贸易战局势恶化,黄金的市场避险功能会得以体现。

[SUMMARY]
• For China edible oils, traders may hold current positions.
• For Malaysia edible oils, aggressive traders may close a few current positions, while conservative traders may take a break and wait for better market opportunity.
• Traders may also initiate new positions in precious metals such as gold, which may mitigate losses when trade war carry on.

[ACTION]
• Global edible oils filled with uncertainty, caused negative sentiment.
• Due to the complication in recent events, current market direction is unclear.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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