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Global Vegoils Analysis – 27 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.27日周四生不逢时内盘油脂又临近“10.1国庆”长假

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间继续小阳K线红盘上涨, 六连阳的K线上行态势,表明美豆油反身上行动作延续中,当期价站上60天均线后,势必盘中会出现多空主力来争夺该“阵地”,期价适当反复一下也是正常, 只要盘面反弹上行动能不出现衰竭信号前,我们继续短多思维对待。

内盘豆粕本周发力上涨, 内盘油脂豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约涨幅较小,在昨日周三阳K线之后,今天周四早盘盘面略显迟疑,多头主力未继续发力。 考虑到内盘又临近十一国庆长假(10.1日—-10月7日 七天假期), 10月8日才开盘交易, 在长假前部分交易者调整仓位,盘面出现期价反复也较为正常。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),今天周四上午盘面暂时呈现十字星表现,盘面成交也较为清淡,多空主力较为谨慎,盘面上未出现明显大动作。

小结:美盘豆油短线的反身上行延续中,期价正临近60天均线关键技术位置,上攻成功与否?——-这会对后市 内盘 马盘油脂商品带来较强的心理影响, 在美盘豆油多空争夺未出结果前——-内盘马盘油脂商品暂时止步徘徊等待。。。。恰恰在这个关口时候,内盘又临近长假期,不排除部分交易者会减持仓位来规避长假期间不确定因素所带来的市场风险,这也是我们心理上较为难取舍的地方(一般情况下 我们在各类长假期间 都是不建议重仓过节)。 具体操作:今天是内盘长假期前倒数第二个交易日(明天周五为最后一个交易日),稳健型交易者可适量减减仓单(仓重者减),仓轻者可多单继续持有——-我们对美盘豆油仍抱有谨慎的反弹上行观点, 在美豆油未出现明显变盘信号前,我们仍保持短多思维不变。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil retesting 60 days moving average, injected strong confidence in China and Malaysia edible oils.
• No further action in China and Malaysia edible oils, both markets awaiting possible breakout result from US soybean oil.
• Upcoming National Day in China may tempt traders to reduce positions to avoid unnecessary market risks.

[ACTION]
• Conservative traders who are holding lots of positions may close certain amount of positions.
• Those who are holding less positions may continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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