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Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 February 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong



大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周二仅豆油1805小阴K线稍微回落,棕榈油1805盘中小挫盘终又走强。今天周三盘面再度红盘走强,盘面显示丝毫不受美盘下跌影响,仍努力保持震荡上扬走势,但短线连续上行之后“超买”痕迹会越来越明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,本周一跳空高开阴十字星K线之后,昨日出现小幅下挫整理走势,但盘中下挫动能不强(下方有60天均线支撑 ),终盘以连续2根阴K线十字星收盘(并列K线组合)。在昨日美盘豆油阴K线下跌表现之后,今天周三早盘期价仅仅小幅低开,后受内盘油脂走强带动,截止上午盘面为红盘表现。

小结:美盘豆油昨日周二出现阴K线回落整理,但内盘 马盘油脂商品“不为所动”,继续在60天均线上方运行(由于当前期价距离下方60天均线没有多少回落空间),多头主力刚刚攻上60天均线后,不愿放弃上攻成果,盘中多头主力积极护盘意愿明显—–这种盘面“有利有弊”, 有利是指 期价上行能拉动日K线图表上均线系统下方短期均线上穿长期均线(5 10 20天均线上穿40 60天均线),有利于形成“金叉”向上态势,更多吸引做多人气。 有弊则是指 持续红盘上拉会形成更小周期(分时图表)上出现“超买”痕迹过于明显, 这是一种“不可调和矛盾”,会对后市走势形成些许不利影响,因此上: 我们在保持短多不变观点前提下,仍需谨防后市的小幅调整(时间上被往后推延了)。 具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,激进型交易者时刻预防盘中的冲高回落行情。

• US soybean oil showed consolidation phase while China and Malaysia soybean oil maintained current position.
• Cautious for small correction phase while China and Malaysia soybean oil stayed above 60 days moving average.

• Aggressive traders are recommended to aware of the occurrence of correction phase.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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