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Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,继续不温不火的在6月19日那根长下影线的右侧窄幅波动,短线走势无新意,期待中的短线技术性反弹未展开,美盘油脂市场在关注7月6日中美贸易战的具体实施情况———也在提醒我们在下月的5—6日时刻也要谨防中美贸易战事态的突然恶化对市场带来的不利影响。

中国方面:最近一段时间—-从6月15日开始,人民币持续贬值,在短短的十个交易日内,人民币大幅贬值2000多点(从6.3900兑换一美元贬值到今天的6.6148才兑换一美元; 若从今年3月份的低点算起,不到3个月时间已经贬值3000多基点 贬值幅度达到5%),人民币的大幅走软令全球经济人士惊愕。。。通常来讲,人民币贬值(钱变得不值钱),国内物价则会升高,对中国的出口企业更有竞争力,但对进口企业有伤害,特别是进口以美元计价的大宗商品,则需要花费的人民币更多一些。 关于人民币贬值,我个人观点是: 在美国加息时候,中国却反其道行之,在6月24日宣布定向降低银行准备金,向国内市场释放了大概7000亿的流动性(人民币贬值的主要原因),央行此举的本质目的是应对信用与流动性风险,避免在中美贸易战时候(7月6号 提前做准备)引发系统性风险。 还有一个原因是抑制外资出逃(同样多的人民币 现在兑换美元变少 美元撤资出逃的成本增大)。。。一个放松,一个加息,当前金融市场暗地里的博弈已经悄悄提前展开。。。我们关心的油脂商品来说,内盘豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,期价已经小幅开始上涨,特别是棕榈油已经7连阳走高,短线角度与美盘豆油出现相反走势,这也在我们此前预料中(特朗普贸易战突发事件可以引起市场的同步急跌 当恐慌情绪清淡一些 内盘主力反过神来)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,当前阶段,马盘棕榈油基本面情况也是困难重重——-出口需求低迷不振,库存积压严重,马政府7月份还要征收5%的出口关税, 美盘豆油又一直喋喋不休,因此上马盘棕榈油近期表现不佳。。。。值得庆幸的是,最近几天,马棕榈追随内盘油脂走高,昨日周三盘面中阳K线上涨,今天期价继续红盘表现,期价反弹到2320一线, 我们前期操作策略是—–1.在横盘震荡箱体的下沿附近埋伏一部分多单,谨防期价受支撑突然反身上涨/ 2.同时还预防着,当箱体下沿被瞬间下破急跌时候再摊低一部分多单(市场选择走的线路是这条), 在我们俩手准备操作建议下,当前多单持仓成本(摊低后的持仓成本应该在2285一线),多单继续持有,后市短线继续以超跌之后的短线技术反弹观点对待。

小结: 内盘 马盘油脂商品期价小幅反弹上行,短线走势上符合我们此前心理预期,盘面未发生大的变化前,我们继续保持短多的反弹观点不变,不被市场恐慌情绪干扰。 具体操作上: 前期分批量 分点位埋伏的多单继续持有,后市继续看高一线。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils continued their uptrend.
• Less volatility occurred in today’s market.

[ACTION]
• Traders should continue to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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