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Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.28日周三美中贸易摩擦略有降温但全球避险情绪仍未得到缓解

有小道消息称中美高层出现温和谈判迹象,贸易战略有降温,特朗普手中挥舞的大棒暂时放下,但谈判能否成功却无人能确定,是否放下木棒后从身后掏出一把大铁锤,这谁也回答不了,全球金融市场投资人士的规避风险情绪未得到全部缓解,贸易摩擦对全球经济的伤害有目共睹,当前怎么讨论该事件都不为过,不关注当前敏感事件却去研究未来经济长期趋势(是否会衰退),那是一厢情愿的徒劳无功。

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间期价小阳K线表现,期价下挫略有企稳,盘中恐慌情绪略有缓解,但仍未出现明显的止跌后的走强,我们继续关注美豆油的后续表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805合约,短线角度的右侧横盘走势依旧很顽强,期价窄幅震荡徘徊,暂时期价波动不大,多空主力拉锯战,均显得较为谨慎,今天周三盘面恐将延续波动震荡走势,后市继续关注中美贸易摩擦对油脂商品短线走势上的影响。

马盘毛棕榈油5月,昨日周二盘面期价低开高走的小阳K线表现,期价仍处于箱体下沿的下方2435一线区域运行,盘中未出现猛烈的下挫远离或者上破上涨。马棕榈油短线走势—–对外在中美贸易摩擦的夹缝中生存,对内在中东地区斋月前良好需求预期 以及在4月7日零关税前国外采购商采购意愿强烈的利多情绪, 和 马棕榈从3月末起产量逐步增加 马币转强的利空情绪中纠结, 这也造成了马盘毛棕榈油不上不下的尴尬境界, 让我们技术上继续观察市场在箱体下沿2450—2460一线是上破还是阻挡?

小结: 美盘豆油短线期价下挫略微企稳,但尚不能确定已经完全止跌。 内盘 马盘油脂商品短线横盘波动震荡,短线方向感不强,我们继续冷眼旁观,局势不明朗前,暂时多空仓单均不盲目操作。 具体操作上:无仓单交易者继续场外观望, 激进型交易者在箱体下沿逢高减仓多单,待市场真正上破箱体下沿后再追仓(谨防市场箱体下沿附近受阻下坠), 稳健型交易者继续谨慎持仓不动,密切关注盘中最新变化。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil loss slightly reduced , but price retreat might persist.
• Both China and Malaysia edible oils market directions remain unclear.

[ACTION]
• Traders with no positions may wait for better market opportunity.
• Aggressive traders may close positions when the price reach support level.
• Conservative traders are advised to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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