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Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.5.28日周一美盘公共假期内盘油脂出现受阻下跌

美盘豆油7月合约,上周四上冲到60天均线上方后,终盘为上影线的小阳K线,其中上影线的出现表明上方存在多头逢高减仓盘与空头的打压盘,存在一定的压力。 而上周五又表现为中阴K线下跌,期价再度回落到60天均线下方,这一信号的出现,对美盘豆油提醒我们要保持谨慎态度。 今天是5月28日周一,恰逢美国阵亡将士纪念日,美国金融市场停盘一天未交易。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,上周五为阴K线的冲高回落走势,今天周一早盘期价继续下跌,连续2根的阴K线—–内盘油脂率先出现走坏继续, 还好我们在前几日就提前做出了多单逢高减仓的建议,暂时规避了前期多单的一定风险。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,在上周四之前,期价短线角度为反弹上行走势,盘中见高点2490一线, 在上周五为跳空低开的小阴K线下跌表现,盘面出现了一些警示信号, 今天周一早盘,受外围周边市场下跌影响(国际原油 美豆油 大陆盘油脂),恐今天马盘棕榈油也将出现一定程度的下跌。

小结:国际原油市场—–由于欧佩克组织与俄罗斯近日商议将共同增产100万桶/日,以弥补伊朗 委内瑞拉两国因素的供应量不足情况,国际原油市场出现下跌,其中美国纽约原油上周五期价暴跌3%,创近期单日最大跌幅,一根长阴K线的出现,拉开国际原油反弹上行之后的回落整理序幕。 美盘豆油上周五期价也中阴K线下跌表现, 尾盘未能站稳60天均线上方(上攻后回落),今天美盘油脂市场因公共假期停盘,在缺少了美盘指引后,内盘油脂市场今天率先出现下跌, 马盘棕榈油也恐将不能幸免。 操作建议:前期剩余少量多单全部平仓出局,已经平仓完成的部分敏感激进型交易者可适量反手日内短空(短空日内平仓了结), 稳健型交易者可场外观望,等待美盘假期回来后的走势指引。

[SUMMARY]
• OPEC and Russia decided to increase supply output due to weak supply from Venezuela and Iran.
• Global crude oil routed, causing China edible oils to slip below EMA 60 which also affected Malaysia palm oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders are advised to close remaining positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate short positions.
• Conservative traders may wait patiently for clearer market direction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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