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Global Vegoils Analysis – 28 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.28日周五美盘豆油反弹上涨延续中马盘棕榈油因库存增加期价出现下跌

美盘豆油昨日周四晚间继续中阳红盘上涨,这已经是“七连阳”反弹上行,当前期价已经站上60天均线上方——后期短线随着期价的不断走高,会拉动下方的短期均线(5 10 20日均线平均价格)上穿长期均线(40 60日平均价格),则会形成“金叉”向上走势。。。对美豆油后市短线走势的预估轨迹应该是: 1.首先期价快速拔高,从而拉动下方均线上穿;2. 当期价快速上冲过猛后,期价会短暂回落下方均线确认一下(那时 短期均线已经上穿长期均线 形成了由原来的空头排列 悄悄转变为多头排列的雏形)。。。当前我们最为关注的是美豆油12月合约,期价在上冲反弹的持续性如何?(因为前期美豆油期价只是短暂站上60天均线就掉头向下),这是下周我们最为关心的地方。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,由于内盘油脂临近“国庆”长假期(7天),今天是假期前最后一个交易日。 内盘豆油多头主力仍在顽强抵抗中等待美盘豆油短线走势的指引。 内盘棕榈油略微稍弱,受马盘棕榈油下跌心理影响较重,内盘油强棕弱盘面特征较明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),由于受马来西亚最新报告库存增加利空情绪影响,以及当前马棕榈仍处于产量高峰大周期内(9 10 11月)双重因素, 马盘棕榈油短线走势较弱——周三 周四连续两天中阴K线下跌,马盘棕榈油需要密切关注9月20日低点的技术支撑力度。

小结:美盘豆油当前短线反弹上行走势非常明显,但出于对该走势的“持续性”,市场还是存在严重分歧,因此造成当前三地油脂商品短线走势上出现“分化”——–美豆油强力上攻, 内盘豆油抵抗性横盘等待观望, 内盘 马盘棕榈油下挫消化利空负面影响。。。由此可以看出,当前多空主力对后市走势分歧较大, 我们只好暂且以美盘豆油为主流风向标,继续以谨慎的短多思维对待。操作上:开锁后的单向多单继续持有,关注美豆油在内盘假期期间的具体表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continue to rally while Malaysia and China edible oils faced resistances.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions and continue to monitor next market movement from US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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