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Global Vegoils Analysis – 29 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.29日周五内盘棕榈油8连阳红盘上涨

在缺少中国买家采购美国大豆担忧心理压力下,美盘油脂市场萎靡不振,死水一潭毫无生机。。。美盘豆油12月合约短线走势低迷下挫,虽然三天来小阳K线红盘表现,但盘中的期价反弹却依旧压力重重,美盘市场多头主力仰天长叹却没有一点办法。

大陆内盘油脂市场却是另一番景象,棕榈油1809主力合约,从6月20日开始已经连续8连阳上涨,虽然每天涨幅不大,但小碎步的反弹上行,不知不觉间已经把6月19日因突发利空事件所引发的长阴K线慢慢吞回,一日的急跌被8天的上涨失地收复。 内盘豆油1809主力合约,短线走势没有棕榈油强,期价仅仅表现为“象征性”上涨,内盘豆油依旧受美盘豆油心理压力影响。

马盘棕榈油基准9月,本周三中阳K线上涨,昨日继续中阳K线上行,期价从前几天徘徊震荡的2240低点一线用2天时间来到2340一线。今天周五早盘期价见高点2348令吉特——-盘中触及我们此前预估的2350位置,该位置为原先箱体的下沿,后市期价能否站进箱体内则成为技术关键? 这点需要我们散户朋友密切关注———–因为原来的箱体下沿被向下击穿后,现在期价正“反抽”箱体下沿, 后市短线是做个简单的小反抽? 还是一鼓作气再攻回被下破的箱体内? 不同的走势这就会严重影响到本波技术反弹的走势“高度”问题上来,因此原来的2350–2360箱体下沿一线就成为我们下周关注的焦点(下周—–若站上去就多单继续持有 若攻不上去就考虑一点点多单减仓)。

小结:美盘豆油压力重重积重难返,美盘油脂市场心理压力较重,我们要 密切关注下周也就是7月5—6号,市场基本面(中美贸易战增加关税的日子)具体实施情况。若有任何的异常风吹草动,建议内盘 马盘油脂商品上激进敏感型散户手中的多单可提前减仓,下周初的头几天为市场特殊敏感期,这点需要散户朋友在内心中提前预防(预防市场再发生剧烈变动 有利当然好 但需要预防不利情况)。操作上:今天短线多单暂时持有, 下周初(7月初)的头几天我们需要在操作上就要保持谨慎态度了。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continued its downward trends.
• All eyes on 5th – 6th July event regarding the implementation of tariff increase resulted from trade war.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may begin to close positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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