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Global Vegoils Analysis – 29 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


中方在报复性增加关税列表中暂时没有美国大豆(只是鲜水果 干果 红酒一类),并且这几天中美高层透露出谈判信号,也许若谈判成功贸易摩擦会悄无声息的因迎刃而解, 这原本对美国大豆 豆农是利多消息,可惜美盘黄豆连依旧保持下挫态势,美盘豆油5月合约期价也呈不温不火的低位震荡(31.50一线),短线走势较为模糊,正如我们前期所说—鸡肋行情,短线方向感指引不强。。。有消息称:今年美国大豆播种面积可能增加,恐将超过玉米的播种面积,这是35年来首次发生,美盘油脂商品仍将短线承压。

大陆内盘油脂商品现货市场供应充足,整体国内豆油 棕榈油 库存有所上升,现货市场价格略有下跌,这对内盘油脂期货市场带来负面影响。内盘豆油 棕榈油1805合约,今天周四早盘期价低开低走,截止中午时刻为中阴K线下跌,盘面疲软,多头主力信心有所放弃抵抗。

马盘毛棕榈油5月,受累于马币持续走强(令吉特达到2年来高位),昨日周三盘面期价阴K线小幅走低(继续在箱体下方运行),今天周四早盘期价又小幅跳空低开,盘中压力较大。。。。离4月7日零关税结束的日子没有几天了,马盘棕榈油盘面压力较为明显。 同时,印度尼西亚因为后期仍维持零出口关税(马来西亚4.8日起 提高出口关税至5%),恐将印尼的出口竞争力略强于大马,这也是马盘棕榈油短线走弱的心理压力,而从3月起季节性产量增加已被市场所共识。

小结:美盘豆油短线无序波动震荡,盘中走势无新意。 内盘 马盘油脂商品今天周四盘面期价走软,虽然基本面情况略有不同,但本质的短线走势基本相似—–短线出现下跌苗头, 多头主力前期耐心抵抗正被市场逐步无情消耗,虽然我们对下方回落空间不看很大,但仍需内心保持谨慎心态。 具体操作上: 激进型 稳健型交易者前几日减持多单后,手中剩余多单谨慎心态持有,今天周四盘面的走弱,表明空方力量开始略占上风, 部分更为激进型交易者可少量空单进场防御(或单向空单 或跨月锁单 内盘跨1809合约空单 马盘跨7月合约),后市短线 密切关注内盘 马盘油脂商品下方的下坠空间大小? 本波短线下挫为抵抗性下坠,我们暂时仍不看很深。

• US soybean oil remain volatile.
• Both China and Malaysia edible oils were routed today despite different catalysts.

• Aggressive traders may initiate short outright positions or intra-commodity hedging on China edible oils at 1809 or Malaysia palm oil July contract.
• Conservative traders may continue holding current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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