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Global Vegoils Analysis – 3 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.4.3日周二油脂商品短线多单继续持有

美盘黄豆连昨日周一晚间长阳K线飙涨后的右上角阴K线冲高回落整理,美豆油5月昨日晚间红十字星表现,盘中虽然未出现更大的涨幅,但短线的反弹动能仍为衰竭,后市继续关注反弹动能力度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805合约(1809主力合约),在连续2天阳K线错列上涨之后,今天周二盘面在阳K线右上角小阴K线短暂整理,短线的上攻欲望仍然很强烈,不必担忧今天的小幅整理,继续短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油5月(或7月),昨日5月合约期价再度反弹到技术位的箱体下沿位置2450–2460一线,说明前几日的短暂下挫为“市场假象”,马盘棕榈油仍具备上攻箱体下沿的可能, 其实我们很早时候就一直抱有上攻箱体下沿的预期(也是手里的多单不平仓的原因),只是在市场“一波三折”的走势中,令短线走势变得更复杂了些(市场利多利空基本面消息千变万化), 市场再如何诡异变化,我们心中的底线只要不被触及,就继续短多思维对待。

小结:未来美国大豆 中国大豆将在4–5月开始播种,美国大豆播种面积的意外下调,这利多情绪还将在市场弥漫,再考虑到后期的天气炒作,不排除有一波短线反弹走势的可能。 在技术层面上,我们一直未往下看回落有多深,也是基于当前市场期价在一个较低区域运行,下方的运行空间实在不大。 当前巴西大豆收割进程达到70%左右,但阿根廷的大幅减产恐将冲抵巴西的增产, 全球大豆供应端整体数量的下降是潜在的利多支持,我们暂时在短线角度继续保持短多思维(是否能演变为中线波段的上行 尚有待后市盘中观察)。 具体操作上: 前期多单继续持有,昨日新进多单谨慎持有,后市密切关注美盘油脂反弹上攻的持续性,以及马盘棕榈油能否冲过2460上方(原箱体下沿的技术阻挡)。

[SUMMARY]
• US and China soybean will begin seeding in between April & May.
• Positive catalysts such as supply dropped in global soybean and hype on weather might cause price to hike.
• Argentina on reduction of soybean production will offset the increased production of soybean in Brazil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold their current long positions.
• Observe the possibility of rebound in US edible oils and breakout at 2460 in Malaysia palm oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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