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Global Vegoils Analysis – 3 Dec 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


这个周末阿根廷传来消息,在布宜诺斯艾利斯召开的20国集团最高领导人峰会上,美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平在西餐晚宴上达成重要共识——决定停止新的贸易关税制裁,中美贸易争端暂时得到缓解(特朗普表示,90天内,经贸关税暂时维持在原来的10%水平,暂不会提高到25% 具体细节指示下属工作单位人员将重启谈判)。。。事后,特朗普发表推特表示: 中国同意将美国汽车关税从当前的40%“减少并取消”,关于大豆后续贸易,中国将同意从美国采购大量农业 能源 工业和其他产品,以降低两国之间的贸易逆差。。。利多消息传出,美国豆农率先欢欣鼓舞——-美盘黄豆连今天周一亚洲电子盘期价大幅跳空高开,美盘豆油1月合约,期价也追随性高开上涨,基本面短线角度利多美盘油脂商品。

大陆内盘油脂商品大豆 豆粕1901合约,受美国大豆从新进口到中国的利空情绪困扰,今天周一期价出现下跌。 内盘豆油1901主力合约,期价中阴K线下跌,但整体仍维持在原来的横盘震荡区间内。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,为高开低走的小阴K线表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或2月),受中美贸易争端缓解情绪影响,受国际原油期价反身上涨提振,今天周一早盘,马棕榈油期价跳空高开于2000令吉特左右,但上午盘面为高开低走的中阴K线表现(存在 部分多头逢高减仓)。

小结: G20峰会上利多消息传出,全球商业信心转强, 国际原油 国内有色金属 橡胶化工制品 铁矿石 黑金属螺纹钢 煤炭等等品种,今天内盘期货市场普遍走强。 。。今天,内盘油脂商品情绪较为“尴尬”——不知该追随美盘油脂走高,还是受短线利空情绪而走低?期价大多表现为高开低走状态,让我们继续关注一下后续盘面多空主力情绪变化,原多单暂时谨慎持有,暂不建议盲目操作。

• Positive catalyst from G20 meeting boosted global sentiment.
• Global commodities market rallied, but China edible oils remain uncertain.

• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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