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Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.01.2018周二内盘油脂商品短线反弹上行之路“一波三折”

美盘豆油3月合约,在两阳夹一阴冲天炮K线组合出现后,昨日周一晚间美豆油并未出现发力上涨动作,期价仅仅十字星表现,今天美豆油亚洲电子盘又阴K线下跌,这令内盘马盘油脂商品出现一定失望情绪,但整体来说—-美豆油短线反弹走势并未完全走坏。

近日,中国大陆本月的国储菜籽油抛售正在如火如荼的进行中,每周一次本月已经抛售了4次,大约21万吨菜油流向市场,从侧面增加了国内油脂商品的总供给量,这对豆油棕榈油带来一定市场冲击,从一定程度上影响了豆油 棕榈油年前的上涨势头。内盘豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周二盘面出现异动——期价早盘高开低走,盘中中长阴K线下跌走势,盘中空头主力增仓阻击令期价走软,盘中一波三折走势较为明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨刚刚收复上周末的失地,今天受大陆内盘油脂期价走软影响,早盘再度低开 ,上午盘面围绕2500整数关一线徘徊,受内盘拖累严重。

小结:大陆内盘油脂商品今天期价突然中长阴K线下跌,盘中空头主力刻意打压猛烈,期价下跌幅度较深,间接影响到马盘棕榈油延续昨日的继续拔高,考虑到美盘豆油尚未完全破坏短线反弹走势,仅仅是在日K线图表上空头排列的均线系统受到压制,这间接提醒我们——本波反弹是在弱势行情下的“弱势反弹”,提醒我们在情绪上需要更谨慎些。操作上:前期多单暂时谨慎持有,关注反弹上行过程中短暂停顿下挫时候盘面上抵抗力量强弱程度大小,暂持仓不动。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil plummeted during the opening, failed to resume previous rally.
• Based on the MACD indicator, uptrend is being pressured and possibilities of short term reversal is still possible.
• Traders should be cautious about bullish reversal pattern.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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