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Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美国农业部昨日周四晚间(北京今天凌晨)公布周度出口报告—–其中,美国2018年度大豆播种面积预估为8898.2万英亩,低于2017年时候的9014.2万英亩, 更大大低于此前市场分析人士所预测的9200万英亩。。。 出乎意料的播种面积下调,出人意外的相反预期结果,瞬间提振美盘油脂市场做多人气 ,美黄豆连昨日晚间长阳暴涨,美盘豆油5月合约,也中阳K线止跌回升,美盘油脂瞬息万变中突然出现走强气息,今天3月30日周五是“耶稣受难日”假期,美盘金融市场将停盘一天,让我们关注下周初的美盘市场延续性。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805合约,昨日周四盘面中阴K线下坠,盘中跌幅较大, 今天受美盘利好消息面支持,早盘低开高走红盘阳K线走强,昨日的秃废疲软走势瞬间又被扭转(失地被收回)。

马盘毛棕榈油5月,昨日周四为跳空低开的小十字星表现,马盘棕榈油7月期价小阴K线走势, 昨日盘中突然出现的向下跳空缺口,令我们防御戒备心理陡然而升,今天在美盘 内盘 转强走势带动下,恐将今日期价走高。

小结:油脂商品利多利空情绪瞬息万变,市场徘徊犹豫中举步艰难(向下 向上均 无力),今年这个时段的市场行情非常不好做(比往年难做多了 主要是趋势性不强 波动性也不强 基本面还复杂),而内盘期货市场其它大宗商品均有过出色表现,唯独内盘油脂商品受冷落而模糊。。。。。鉴于美盘短线存在利好支持,我们延续前期短多观点(其实截止到昨天 我们都不往下看回落空间有多大 只是建议激进型防御一下)。 操作上: 稳健型交易者手中剩余多单继续持有, 而部分激进型交易者昨日建议的防御性跨远月空单逢低平仓了结, 密切关注下周美盘大豆 豆油走强的持续性力度。

• Difficulty increased in trading global edible oils amid unforeseen catalysts, notably China market.

• Conservative traders may continue holding current positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate short positions in different contract month, and close positions when market price shows sign of rebound.
• Observe US soybean and soybean oil market direction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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