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Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018年5月30日周三美国政府出尔反尔令中美贸易摩擦再度升温

在5月初,美国白宫高级代表团来华磋商中美贸易战,事后双方发表联合声明—–美国财长姆努钦明确对媒体说“美中贸易磋商取得了有意义的进展,两国就框架问题达成协议,双方同意停打贸易战”,这声音余音在耳。。。却不料美国白宫在昨天5月29日再度发布声明——将仍将对中国500亿中国商品征收25%的关税,具体商品清单将在6月15日公布。 哎呦 ,这美国政府(特朗普老头)是在用任性透支国家信誉,把全世界人民都搞糊涂了, 这只会让美国在国际道义上越发陷入尴尬和被动境界,世界老大地位越发摇摇欲坠!

针对白宫最新变化,中国商务部新闻发言人在29日深夜也发表声明: “我们对白宫发布的策略性声明感到出乎意料,但又在意料之中,这显然有悖于不久前在美国华盛顿双方达成的共识。无论美方出台什么举措,中方都有信心 有能力 有经验捍卫中国人民利益和国家核心利益,中方敦促美方按照联合声明精神 相向而行”。

受美国政府单方面的摇摆不定利空消息刺激,对中方严厉反击态度的担忧,直接传导到美国大豆市场——美盘黄豆连昨日周二晚间闻讯期价大幅跳空下跌,前期的反弹上扬走势戛然而止,美盘豆油7月合约也追随性期价走弱,美盘油脂商品再度陷于恐慌之中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 今天周三盘面出现“异动”, 内盘大豆 豆粕期价今天出现下跌(前期追随美盘反弹上涨)。而内盘豆油1809合约,前两天一度疲软,今天却突然中阳K线上涨, 而内盘棕榈油却继续保持下挫,内盘豆油 棕榈油二者走势出现分化。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周二因公共假期停盘一天,今天周三开盘后,期价延续本周一的下跌走势,期价惯性下挫,马盘棕榈油当前回落到2400一线。

小结:美盘油脂市场承受波动情绪影响,暂且不管是因为美国商务部长罗斯即将访问中国,美国再度挥舞大棒想讹诈出一个更有利的谈判筹码,更不排除这是特朗普的一种斗争策略——-但美国政府的“变脸高手”表现,为世人所不齿,国家政治信誉被特朗普老头挥霍殆尽。。。这也令美盘油脂商品市场出现恐慌性下跌, 但观察内盘豆油今天表现,期价突然走高,却也令人费解。 而内盘 马盘 棕榈油期价继续保持反弹之后的下挫走势, 豆油 棕榈油二者今天周三盘面出现分化走势迹象。 因此我们具体操作上也要发生一些变化: 激进型交易者可多豆油空棕榈油跨品种套利,马盘毛棕榈油继续短空。 稳健型交易者可场外观望,不趟此浑水。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil fell due panic selling caused by unexpected raised of import tariff from US.
• China soybean oil unexpectedly rallied despite US soybean oil routed.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate long positions on soybean oil while initiate short positions on Malaysia palm oil.
• Conservative traders may hold off until further confirmation.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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