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Global Vegoils Analysis – 30 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.11.30日周五棕榈油品种本周宽幅震荡

截止到本月底,美国大豆收割工作基本接近尾声阶段,当前美国农户大量的新豆堆积如山,美国豆农正在等待中美两国最高领导人今天在阿根廷的晚宴结果。。。中美经济贸易后续如何发展? 贸易争端是否会缓和?中美联合公报是会否出现可喜的新消息? 未来几天就明朗了。 下周初美盘 大豆 豆油就会做出相应的反应。

内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,近期短线横盘蛰伏不动,期价变化不大。 内盘棕榈油1901主力合约,本周先抑后扬,期价出现大幅震荡,盘面受马盘棕榈油走势影响明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),本周一受印度尼西亚下调出口关税利空消息影响,期价周一时候一根长阴k线突然暴跌,随后四天又四连阳红盘上涨收复失地——-这与马来西亚最新政策 B10生物柴油掺混政策执行分不开,马来西亚政府将于12月1号开始执行,这大大利多马盘棕榈油——-其实我们早早就曾提到过,这一潜在利多基本面一直被市场所忽略, 当前印尼执行的是B20项目, 20%的掺混比, 泰国也宣布2019年开始也执行B10项目。

小结: 中美贸易争端疑云仍然笼罩油脂市场——特朗普与习近平今日西餐晚宴结果就显得非常重要。。。。印度尼西亚 马来西亚两国政府本周的两大新政策 公布,又严重影响到棕榈油市场的敏感神经——– 全球油脂商品在动荡不安中度过本周, 下周初油脂商品市场肯定还会h风云再起”,短线油脂商品的期价剧烈波动恐难避免, 我们散户朋友能做的只有冷眼旁观,暂且不盲目追随。 具体操作上: 前期新老多单谨慎持有,等待下周一市场消息面的具体结果。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. trade war still looming global edible oils.
• New policy from Indonesia and Malaysia’s government affected palm oil industry.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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